Quant Trading

Gate Research:From January 13 to January 26, 2026, the crypto market remained broadly weak amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Major assets traded lower in a defensive, range-bound structure, while market-cap performance showed clear divergence: the top 400 tokens posted mild pullbacks, whereas lower-cap segments outperformed. High-beta names such as PENGUIN and RIVER rallied sharply, while several previously overheated speculative assets saw steep corrections. Volume–price dynamics were also uneven—only a handful of tokens showed strong volume-price confirmation, while most remained in low-volume, weak-trend conditions. This suggests capital is still rotating tactically rather than positioning for a full trend reversal, though selective opportunities persist. Meanwhile, sectors such as NFT platform incentives, decentralized node networks, social task-based point systems, and prediction market ecosystems have begun rolling out airdrop-style campaigns. This report outlines

The crypto market ended 2025 with negative returns, as BTC and ETH failed to hold their key year-start levels of $90,000 and $3,000, respectively. Within Gate’s private wealth quant funds, Stellar Core Smart-Invest (USDT) led with an 11.0% annualized return and a Sharpe ratio of 4.3, demonstrating strong risk-adjusted performance. Additionally, Quantum Leap (USDT), Interstellar Hedge (USDT), and Gravity Hedge (USDT) all achieved a 100% win rate for the year. The USDT strategy returned 1.6% in December and achieved a 7.5% full-year return, with overall drawdowns nearly at zero. In the short term, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January is low, and divergence over the pace of future cuts may further widen. In the medium to long term, deeper regulatory coordination and progress in crypto legislation could become a key institutional turning point for crypto assets entering the mainstream financial system.

Gate Research: BTC and ETH remain in a weak consolidation phase, with price levels trending lower and rebounds lacking sustainability. Periodic spikes in volatility indicate that market sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive to key price levels. On the derivatives side, following the earlier deleveraging cycle, fresh capital has yet to return meaningfully, with open interest staying at relatively low levels; liquidation dynamics continue to be skewed toward long positions, suggesting that confidence has not fully recovered and that near-term risks of further consolidation or pullbacks persist. From a quantitative strategy perspective, moving-average trend breakout models demonstrate solid trend-capturing capability in assets such as DOGE, ADA, and SOL, though they may be constrained by signal lag during fast, one-sided market moves.

From December 2 to December 15, 2025, global markets exhibited divergent performance. Despite the Fed delivering a rate cut as expected, policy disagreements and expectations of a pause in further easing weighed on risk appetite. BTC and ETH remained in a consolidation phase, while higher-beta assets outperformed. Tokens related to AI applications and privacy computing showed notable strength, whereas narratives around new public blockchains and stablecoins underperformed. Volume–price dynamics were clearly fragmented, with the market still dominated by short-term trading, although structural opportunities remain. Meanwhile, sectors such as node-based networks, incentivized testnets, and community point systems continued to heat up, with projects accelerating early user acquisition through airdrops and point-based incentives. This article outlines the key participation pathways to help users position at low cost and capture potential upside from upcoming mainnet launches, token distrib

This report provides an in-depth analysis of momentum investing within the Bitcoin (BTC) market, examining how classical technical indicators perform under varying trend and volatility conditions. Beginning with the theoretical foundations of momentum and its behavioral finance interpretations, the report systematically reviews the structural logic, signal mechanisms, and analytical functions of MACD, Bollinger Bands, ADX/DMI, and RSI. Using actual BTC price movements, it illustrates how these indicators reflect trend formation, momentum decay, volatility expansion, and potential reversal signals. Backtesting results over a full year show that different indicators produce highly divergent outcomes when exposed to the same market environment: trend-following and oversold-reversal strategies tend to struggle during weak or choppy market phases, while volatility-breakout methods, particularly Bollinger Band strategies, demonstrate higher win rates and more stable drawdown behavior.

BTC and ETH continue to trade in a weak, choppy structure, with prices trending lower and rebounds lacking strength. Volatility has spiked multiple times, reflecting fragile sentiment. On the derivatives side, leverage has not returned after a major deleveraging event, with open interest remaining at low levels. The concentrated long liquidations in early November further indicate declining confidence, suggesting that short-term downside risks remain. From a quantitative strategy perspective, the moving-average trend-breakout model has delivered strong performance in assets such as XRP, DOGE, and ADA, though it may still face signal delays and stop-loss whipsaws during strong one-sided trends. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund employs a market-neutral arbitrage and hedging framework, emphasizing stable returns and risk control, offering investors a lower-volatility and more sustainable long-term allocation option.

From October 28 to November 10, 2025, the crypto market continued its rotational pattern, with BTC and ETH rebounding to above $105,800 and $3,630, respectively. PoW and AI narratives became the core drivers of momentum. ORE surged 514%, while AIA and SOON rose 238% and 188%, attracting strong inflows into AI and emerging application sectors. Infrastructure and privacy-focused projects such as ICP, ZEC, and FIL also advanced, forming a “narrative + technology” dual-driven uptrend. Recently, projects in trending sectors like AI, Layer2, social points, and identity verification have successively launched airdrop campaigns — this report summarizes key participation methods to help users capture rebound opportunities and potential upside.

In October, Bitcoin recorded its first monthly loss since 2018, with the overall cryptocurrency market significantly underperforming traditional risk assets. Despite this weakness, the top 30% of quantitative fund portfolios achieved an impressive annualized return of 35.4%, substantially outperforming Bitcoin. The Hedging Investment-USDT strategy stood out, delivering a positive 5% return even as Bitcoin declined more than 5.5% during the month. Overall drawdowns across quantitative funds remained minimal, with the USDT strategy’s maximum drawdown at just -0.01%. Looking ahead to November, macro liquidity conditions and policy expectations are expected to continue driving market direction, while the crypto market may remain in a “high-volatility, low-trend” consolidation phase.

Since mid-October 2025, BTC and ETH have remained in a high-level consolidation phase, with price structures and volatility showing clear divergence while short-term momentum has weakened. In the derivatives market, leveraged positions have undergone deleveraging followed by gradual recovery, with ETH positions displaying stronger resilience. On October 10, long-position liquidations exceeded $19 billion, reflecting mounting pressure at higher price levels and fading short-term confidence. Overall structure remains stable, though the rebound momentum appears limited. In terms of quantitative strategies, the RSI-based reversal model has performed solidly in assets such as BTC, delivering cumulative returns of around 50%. However, higher returns are still accompanied by greater volatility and drawdown risk. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund focuses on market-neutral arbitrage and hedging strategies, emphasizing stable returns and robust risk management to provide investors with a more bal

From October 7 to October 20, 2025, the crypto market continued its rotational structure, with BTC rebounding from 102,100 USDT and ETH stabilizing near 3,680 USDT before moving upward. RAIL surged over 125%, driven by renewed interest in privacy narratives and anticipation of upcoming compliance summits, while COAI and H both gained more than 110%. Overall, capital flowed primarily into mid- and small-cap tokens, with strong rotations across privacy, AI, and on-chain computing themes. Recently, several trending projects in NFT, DEX, and AI sectors have also launched airdrop campaigns, providing users with opportunities to capture rebound momentum and early participation rewards.

From September 9 to September 22, 2025, both BTC and ETH remained in a high-level consolidation phase, with divergences emerging between price structure and volatility performance, indicating overall weak short-term momentum. On the derivatives side, BTC open interest retreated significantly from recent highs, while ETH held relatively steady, suggesting that leveraged positions have not yet fully exited the market. On September 22, long liquidation volume surged to over $1.6 billion, highlighting mounting pressure at market highs and intensifying bearish sentiment due to cascading stop-losses by long positions. In terms of quantitative strategies, a mean-reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands delivered strong performance on ADA, achieving an annualized return of over 60%, showcasing solid potential for short-term trading.

Gate Research Report: From August 12 to August 25, 2025, ETH continued its strong upward trend, breaking above 4,900 USDT to reach a new all-time high. BIO posted a notable 81.38% gain, accompanied by over a 9-fold increase in trading volume, making it one of the standout projects in this round of price–volume resonance. API3 also surged on rising volume, with a stage gain of 77.09%. Additionally, airdrop tasks have recently been launched by projects such as Edgen, Symbiotic, Pharos, and Cerebro. This article will outline the participation methods to help users capture the rebound gains and potential opportunities.