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What Is Expectancy? How Can You Tell Whether a Trading Strategy Has a Positive Edge Over the Long Term?

Whether a trading strategy is worth using over the long term cannot be judged by how much a few trades made. What matters is how much profit each trade generates on average and how much loss risk it carries. That is the purpose of expectancy.

First, what is trading expectancy?

Expectancy is a metric that estimates the average long-term outcome per trade based on the win rate, average profit, and average loss. The formula is:

Expectancy = win rate × average profit − loss rate × average lo
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$ETH ‌
The market structure has shifted decisively bearish; we have broken down from a consolidation phase and sliced through the middle Bollinger Band (MB: 2,008.35) with significant volume. The structure is currently creating a "lower low" formation, with the price plummeting to a local low of 1,917.69, breaking the previous support levels. The 24-hour high of 2,053.89 is now distant resistance, and the trend is firmly downward as price action rides the lower Bollinger Band (LB: 1,951.86) and is currently trading below it at 1,928.42 (-5.98%).

K Line Analysis
Looking at the K-lines, there
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ETH-1.26%
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IDOL
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AI
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🚨 Major news: KPMG US has issued an unqualified audit opinion on Tether Gold, confirming assets totaling $2.25 billion! 🚀
The audit report shows that as of December 31, 2025, 520,089 troy ounces of pure gold were physically held in Swiss vaults. Verified through a physical inventory, confidence in Tether’s gold-backed token has further increased. Transparency has significantly improved for regulators and investors, potentially paving the way for broader use cases. 📊
Further developments are worth watching. 📈
$BARD , $DODO , $BARD
Risk warning: The above content does not constitute investme
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BARD-1.24%
DODO+11.43%
🐋 WHALE WATCH :$440M liquidated in the past hour. $417M from longs.
=> $BTC broke below $69K.
=> $ETH dropped under $1950.
=> $SOL hit $78.
Longs got washed.
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BTC-0.65%
ETH-1.23%
SOL-0.74%
This Microsoft outage affected even Australian intelligence agencies and the Japanese government!
This isn’t just a matter of ordinary office workers not receiving emails. Intelligence and security organizations, federal police, and Japanese government ministries and agencies were all caught up in it. The government even had to invoke a protocol asking Microsoft to prioritize restoring services in its country. The whole situation is absurd.
Downdetector outage reports peaked at nearly 130,000. Teams, Copilot, and multiple Microsoft 365 services also experienced outages. Microsoft said some ser
Bitcoin is near to retest the fib level 78.6%, If BTC will make pullback from this support price level the short term target will will be $72,000.
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BTC-0.67%
📊 U.S. initial jobless claims exceed expectations—are hopes for rate cuts back?

Initial jobless claims rose to 200k in the latest week, above expectations of 194k, showing signs of a slight cooling in the labor market.

But the thing is, 200k is still historically low. 👀

📉 Optimists: The labor market is starting to cool, which may ease pressure on the Fed to keep rates high.

📈 Cautious observers: CPI just came in hotter than expected, inflationary pressure remains, and one week of employment data is not enough to change the policy outlook.

With a cooling labor market and stubbornly hig
GateSquare
📊 U.S. initial jobless claims exceed expectations—are hopes for rate cuts back?
Initial jobless claims rose to 200k in the latest week, above expectations of 194k, showing signs of a slight cooling in the labor market.
But the thing is, 200k is still historically low. 👀
📉 Optimists: The labor market is starting to cool, which may ease pressure on the Fed to keep rates high.
📈 Cautious observers: CPI just came in hotter than expected, inflationary pressure remains, and one week of employment data is not enough to change the policy outlook.
With a cooling labor market and stubbornly high inflation emerging at the same time, which signal will the Fed focus on next?
💬 If employment continues to weaken but inflation stays high, would you be more bullish on a BTC and U.S. stock rebound, or choose to keep waiting?
Come to Gate Square with #美国初请失业金人数高于预期 to share your market outlook, trading strategy, or portfolio changes.
Do you think the market needs cooling inflation more right now, or resilient employment?
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BTC-0.67%
USOctoberCPIBeatsExpectations Inflation is heating up again. Could the Fed turn more hawkish, and wh
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Congrats to the guys in the livestream—caught the ETH dip and took profit successfully again. Keep your hands in check and manage your positions well; there are always opportunities. Frequent trading is a major no-no! Steady profits are what matter most.#BTC跌4% $ETH
ETH-1.23%
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#JensenHuangResigns
🚨 Jensen Huang Resigns as NVIDIA CEO—What’s Next for NVIDIA?

The AI chip giant faces a major leadership change.

NVIDIA has officially confirmed that Jensen Huang has resigned as CEO and director, with CFO Colette Kress serving as interim CEO. Following the announcement, NVDA fell more than 10% at one point in premarket trading. 📉

As NVIDIA’s founder, Jensen Huang has long been a key driver of the company’s AI strategy. His departure has also prompted the market to reassess NVIDIA’s future prospects.

The biggest question now is: How much does NVIDIA’s long-term compet
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NVDA-4.49%
Goiz Future is once again flooding the gainers list, and the buzz continues to heat up🔥 These assets are worth keeping a close eye on to see who can take over and push higher...
$BARD 0.17$MAGMA 0.40$CBRS 120PLAY 0.0090DODOX 0.030
BARD is already up +55.08%, MAGMA has followed with +25.21%, and CBRS has also gained +16.56%. Check the rankings for more assets.
Markets move quickly, so be cautious about chasing highs and manage your positions. This is not investment advice.
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BARD-1.24%
MAGMA-0.57%
CBRS-1.52%
$ETH 4-hour stair-step breakdown! The bulls’ defenses are retreating step by step—when will the decline finally stabilize?

Conclusion first: The 4-hour chart shows a textbook stair-step drop on rising volume. Bearish momentum still dominates; don’t blindly buy the dip before a clear bottoming signal appears!
📊 Market structure breakdown • Stair-step breakdowns: Each consolidation ends with a large bearish candle breaking lower on heavy volume, with both highs and lows moving down in tandem, confirming a clear downtrend. • Volume warning: The latest large bearish candle again broke below the
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US500+0.00%
Why can an entrepreneur still make it to Oxford after 13 years? Dr. Han’s experience tells us: entrepreneurship isn’t about luck!

In the first year of a startup, many people rely on passion.
By the third year, many rely on perseverance.
By the tenth year, those who truly remain are often sustained by systems, teams, and the ability to continually evolve.
Dr. Han looked back on Gate’s 13-year entrepreneurial journey and shared insights on entrepreneurial resilience and team building at the Oxford Union. This experience is worth reflecting on for entrepreneurs.
Entrepreneurship has never been a
NAS100+0.00%
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The most beautiful morning in your world is the morning you open your eyes to welcome a new day. Never forget that!
Good morning and may your Friday be blessed!
$NVDA ‌ #JensenHuangResigns
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NVDA-0.35%
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Folks!
The entire Crypto Market is getting HAMMERED!
Yet ONE altcoin refuses to play along! 👀
Any guesses which one?
Come on, it should be obvious by now. I've been banging on about it for weeks!
midnight-3:native 🌙 #MIDNIGHT 🌙
Showing remarkable strength here while the rest of the market bleeds!
Now imagine what happens when the broader market finally stops dumping...
I reckon she's going to RIP HARD! 🚀🔥
Who's been paying attention?
1st Chart, NIGHTUSDT 🚀🚀🚀
2nd Chart, NIGHTUSDT/BTCUSDT 🌙🌙🌙
NIGHT-3.10%
Gmgm legends
Are u tired?
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What Is Overfitting? Why Can More Perfect Parameters Make a Strategy More Fragile?

A trading strategy may perform almost perfectly in historical backtests, with a high win rate, a smooth return curve, and a very small maximum drawdown, making it seem as though it has found a pattern in the market. But once it enters the live market, it may suffer frequent losses. One important reason for this is overfitting.

First, what is overfitting?

Simply put, it means a strategy has adapted too closely to specific fluctuations and random events in historical data, without truly identifying patterns tha
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What Is Price-Volume Divergence? How Is It Different from a Normal Decline in Trading Volume?

In crypto markets, price and trading volume do not always move in sync. When prices continue to rise while trading volume gradually declines, or prices keep falling while trading volume continues to contract, traders may consider whether price-volume divergence is emerging. But price-volume divergence is only an analytical clue; it does not mean the market will necessarily reverse.

First, what is price-volume divergence?

Price-volume divergence refers to a mismatch between price movements and chang
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Why Can Spot-Futures Arbitrage Seem Like a Sure Thing Yet Still Lose Money in Practice?

When Bitcoin futures prices are significantly higher than spot prices, a common strategy is to buy spot and sell futures, then wait for the spread to narrow and profit from the convergence.

This strategy is commonly known as cash-and-carry arbitrage. It has a clear pricing logic, but that does not mean it is risk-free.

First, the spread is not the same as the final profit.

Suppose an asset’s spot price is 100,000 USDT and its futures price is 102,000 USDT, giving an apparent spread of 2,000 USDT. But ac
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BTC-0.65%
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JensenHuangResigns

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Jensen Huang has resigned as NVIDIA CEO and stepped down from the board. CFO Colette Kress will serve as interim CEO while NVIDIA considers internal and external successors. $NVDA fell more than 10% in premarket trading following the announcement. With one of AI’s most influential leaders stepping aside, markets are now reassessing NVIDIA’s leadership stability, AI strategy, and long-term valuation.

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