$MRVL
#GateStockInsightsChallenge Marvell (MRVL) Post-Earnings Report: Not Today's Numbers, but Google's 240-Piece Warrant
MRVL is releasing its Q2 FY2027 earnings at market close today: Wall Street expects $2.71 billion in revenue and $0.93 in earnings per share.
The company's own guidance is $2.70 billion and $0.93 – a difference of only 0.3%. For the past four quarters, MRVL has exceeded EPS expectations by an average of 0.1%. The possibility of a "surprise" this quarter is almost nonexistent. The real story isn't in today's numbers, but in the filing with the SEC on August 19th.
Google Agreement: 240-Piece Warrant
Google acquired a warrant for 58,970,907 shares in MRVL. The exercise price is $206.58. The stock closed at $245.12 yesterday – meaning Google is up 19% even before a single tranche is vested.
The crucial part is the vesting terms:
• Almost all of the stock tranches (57.6 million units) will be vested in 240 installments.
• Each installment opens with Google purchasing $500 million worth of private chips from MRVL.
• 240 × $500 million = $120 billion
This is less of a customer contract and more of a "purchase route" that Google is writing to MRVL. And the first lights of this route will start flashing with the Q3 guidance to be given tonight. Because the purchase-based tranches are going into effect in the third quarter of FY2027.
Stock: Recovery from the Fall
MRVL had fallen as low as $163.39 on July 29th – the day the Google deal was signed. It recovered following the news of the deal and closed at $245.12 yesterday.
• Year-to-date return: 179%
• Sector average: 27.5%
• Forward P/S multiple: 14.40x – sector average 5.06x
• 75% of analysts recommend BUY
• Average target price: $269
• Most optimistic: $400
My 3 Scenarios
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Revenue $2.77 billion or more, Q3 guidance above $3.2 billion. The Google deal is clearly within the guidance and the first tranches are being activated. 77x trailing P/E is the only result justifying the stock's current position.
➡️ Base Scenario:
Revenue between $2.70-2.75 billion, Q3 guidance between $3.0-3.1 billion. Maintaining guidance for the fifth consecutive quarter. Nothing has been confirmed or refuted; the argument is being carried over to Investor Day on October 6th.
📉 Downward Scenario:
Revenue is at the lower end of the guidance range, Q3 guidance is below the $3.04 billion consensus. The Warrant is becoming a "story" rather than a "calendar" – and the 77x P/E ratio has very little ground to stand on.
3 Realities Behind the Numbers
1. Dependence on China
44% of last quarter's revenue came from China; it was 37% a year ago. The US share fell from 16% to 7%. A huge geographic shift in 12 months.
2. GAAP vs. Non-GAAP Gap
Last quarter's GAAP net income was $34.5 million, while Non-GAAP was $718 million – a 20x difference. The majority of this difference stems from $193 million in equity-based compensation and purchase amortization. The Google warrant will add a new item to this picture.
3. New CFO
Dan Durn was appointed CFO in June; today's guidance quarter is his first full term. Former CFO Willem Meintjes left after 10 years to spend time with his family.
The custom chip business is no longer a "design winning" game, but a "funding" game. NVIDIA mobilized $500 billion in third-party capital overnight. MRVL, meanwhile, traded 7% of its shares in exchange for a client's purchase schedule. Same move, different instrument.
The only indicator that would mislead me: Q3 guidance falling below $3.04 billion. The warrant only makes sense when the revenue behind it arrives. $3.04 billion is the threshold that tells Google's acquisitions have begun. Below that, those 240 squares are just a story, not a schedule.
All assessments and comments here are purely my personal opinions. DYOR 🔎 NFA ✔️
