#每周来晒 #8月CPI数据出炉 After the bottom, before the bull market
On September 3, Fed Governor Waller said that as long as the data allowed, he favored keeping interest rates unchanged. That one sentence sent $730 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs that day, setting a daily record since January, and Bitcoin surged above $81,000. The money stayed for only two trading days. Starting September 8, oil prices rose, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned above 4.8%, and expectations of a rate hike steadily intensified. ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling $463 million. On September 11, August CPI was released, rebounding year-on-year to 3.4%, and the probability of a rate hike rose to 85%. The price fell back to $77,000. One sentence can bring money in, and once rate-hike expectations heat up, the money leaves. This is Bitcoin's current predicament. A wall is pressing down from above.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that between $83,000 and $86,000, approximately 1.07 million bitcoins have accumulated, almost all bought at this price level by long-term holders. These people have been trapped for more than half a year, waiting to break even. At the same level, the overall cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings is also around $86,000.
This is not a resistance line drawn on a chart, but a wall built up with real money. No one can give a definitive answer as to whether the bear market has ended. Only one thing is certain: whatever the answer, $86,000 must be cleared first.
01 1.07 million bitcoins pressing down from above
After setting an all-time high of $126,200 on October 6 last year, Bitcoin fell all the way to $57,700 at the end of June this year, then rebounded from $60,000 to above $80,000 before falling back and moving sideways between $76,000 and $78,000. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bit, believes that $60,000 was the bottom of this cycle and that a new upward cycle has already begun. Glassnode's description is much more cautious: a range in which “the floor has been repaired, but the ceiling has not yet been tested.” Both statements have their basis.
Glassnode has an indicator called the “True Market Mean,” which can be understood as the average cost basis of the entire market. It is currently $76,600. Bitcoin is repeatedly battling along this line, meaning the market has just returned from an oversold state to equilibrium. Above is the starting point of a bull market; below is the continuation of the bear market. It now happens to be standing on the dividing line. ETFs are in an especially awkward position. According to Glassnode, ETFs as a whole have been in unrealized losses for 228 consecutive trading days, with paper losses reaching approximately $18 billion at their deepest and narrowing to about $3.9 billion currently. As long as the price does not hold above $86,000, Wall Street's largest buying channel will remain in the red. Funds in a loss-making position are instinctively more inclined to wait to break even than to add positions. So far, every time the price has approached this area, what has arrived has not been a breakout, but selling by holders looking to break even. In early August, Bitcoin was still hovering between $63,000 and $65,000. On August 19, short positions were liquidated en masse, and the price surged rapidly. On September 3, it touched above $81,000, a new high since May. Then it stopped, 1.5% below the lower edge of the wall. There is no vacuum below. Between $76,000 and $82,000, recently purchased holdings are becoming increasingly concentrated. Breaking upward is difficult, but breaking downward is not easy either.
02 Why ETF money cannot stay
The market is not short of money; it is short of money that stays. In August, U.S. spot ETFs recorded $3.52 billion in net inflows, their best month of the year, while July saw only $172 million. By the first week of September, there had already been three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling approximately $3.8 billion. In the second week, the direction changed: net outflows of $463 million over four trading days brought the three-week inflow streak to an end. Weekly buying of around $1 billion was already insufficient to absorb the 1.07 million bitcoins waiting to break even, let alone when it retreated as rate-hike expectations intensified. Meanwhile, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to approximately 2.7 million coins, the lowest level since 2018. Coins being withdrawn from exchanges usually means holders have no intention of selling in the short term. This is also one reason the price has not fallen deeply. The total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for more than 80% combined. Not all of this money is waiting to buy Bitcoin, but it at least shows that money has not left the crypto market. The ammunition is plentiful; no one is willing to fire first.
03 What the on-chain data says
The judgment from on-chain data leans toward this: the most dangerous phase may have passed, but a return to an uptrend is still some distance away. Glassnode's “sell-side risk ratio” measures how much of the supply is sold each day while in profit or loss. This figure has now fallen to 7 basis points per day, less than half the August peak of 16 basis points and far below the 23 to 35 basis points seen at last year's highs. In other words, both those looking to take profits and those looking to cut losses have temporarily stopped. No one is willing to make a major move at $77,000.
Glassnode also combines dozens of on-chain indicators into a composite reading. During the week at the end of June, indicators showing “cold” accounted for as much as 82%, a new high for this cycle. In the most recent week, that proportion was only 2%. Glassnode interprets this as meaning the darkest phase has passed.
But it can also be viewed the other way: the market is no longer cheap, and being cheap was once its biggest attraction. In the derivatives market, futures open interest has risen to a high of $37.1 billion, but the funding paid by longs to shorts fell 30% within a week, with the rate approaching zero. High open interest and low funding rates indicate that new positions are mainly for hedging rather than leveraged longs. In the wave that challenged $80,000 in early September, long-term holders accounted for only 47% of total realized profits across the network, compared with 88% at the August peak. Long-term capital sold once in August and largely stopped in September; recent selling has mainly come from short-term holders. These data show that the bottom has support, but support does not equal a starting point. It can be the foundation of a bull market or a longer platform within a bear market.
04 Everything awaits the Fed next Wednesday
The focus of the disagreement is not on-chain, but U.S. Treasuries and the Federal Reserve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 4.96%, while the 30-year yield is around 5.25%. With the annualized return on risk-free assets approaching 5%, institutions have no reason to put money into an asset that pays no interest and is highly volatile. Why are yields so high? Not because the market expects inflation to spiral out of control—the inflation expectation implied by 10-year Treasuries is only 2.4%. The real reason is excessive fiscal deficits and an oversupply of Treasuries; buyers demand higher interest before they are willing to take them on. Starting in September, the Treasury Department tripled the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks, yet yields remained elevated. Then comes next Wednesday, September 16, when the Fed meets on rates. After August CPI rebounded to 3.4%, the probability of a rate hike priced by the CME FedWatch tool rose to 85%. If rates are raised, those worried that “one final drop remains” will have the most concrete reason; if they are not, bulls will have theirs. Arthur Hayes is bullish because Treasury buybacks and the Fed quietly expanding its balance sheet are essentially early forms of money printing by another name. He has set two trigger signals: the MOVE bond volatility index breaking above 130 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5%. Once triggered, the central bank will be forced to inject liquidity, sending Bitcoin above $200,000. Ironically, the 10-year yield is only 4 basis points away from 5%. He also believes that before the November midterm elections, politicians will only become more inclined to spend, with the election at most being a “small speed bump.” But he also warns that in the short term, a large amount of options positioning has accumulated between $70,000 and $75,000; if the price falls back there, “it will be very violent.” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG, which manages $16 billion in assets, takes the opposing view: the Treasury cannot overpower the bond market, and the Fed has no room to print money. As long as the 30-year yield remains above 5%, this rebound will ultimately retreat to the August starting point, $63,000 to $65,000, for lack of new money.
To determine who is right, look at three hard indicators: Bitcoin's weekly close holding above $86,000; ETF net inflows exceeding $1.5 billion per week for more than three consecutive weeks; and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 5%. Of the three indicators, two are close and one has just been interrupted. The yield is 4 basis points from the trigger line, the price is 12% from the wall, and the record of three consecutive weeks of ETF inflows was interrupted this week. Between $76,000 and $86,000 is a corridor that requires patience to cross. $75,500 below is the support line of the holdings, while $86,000 above is the only exit.
Whether it can get past it will not be determined by the chart, but by next Wednesday.
The wall is still standing.$BTC