Why has the oil price been rising so aggressively recently?
At the core, this round of oil price increases comes down to two words:
Supply concerns.
Brent crude recently climbed back above $100, briefly surging above $107 most recently. The most direct reason behind this is the continued deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, with new supply and transportation risks emerging around the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Saudi energy facilities.
Many people assume that rising oil prices must mean global demand has improved.
This time, that is precisely not the case.
What the market is really worried about is:
The oil is still there, but can it be transported out smoothly?
The Strait of Hormuz is a major global energy transportation route. Once shipping is disrupted, even if actual production cuts have not yet fully occurred, traders will price in the “risk of supply disruption” in advance.
On top of that, attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and rising risks to shipping in the Red Sea are driving up transportation and insurance costs.
So this round of oil price increases is really trading on one thing:
A risk premium.
What is more troublesome is that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, the impact will go far beyond gas stations.
Rising crude oil prices → rising energy costs → inflationary pressure returns → the Federal Reserve finds it more difficult to cut interest rates and may even remain hawkish → U.S. Treasury yields rise → the U.S. dollar strengthens → risk assets such as stocks, gold, and Crypto come under pressure.
This is also why the market has recently started focusing on the Federal Reserve again, rather than just oil prices themselves. The latest Reuters report shows that the combination of rising oil prices and inflationary pressure in the United States has already significantly affected the market’s assessment of the interest-rate path.
So I think what really needs to be watched next is not:
Can oil prices continue to rise?
But rather:
When will the supply risks in the Middle East begin to ease?
As long as transportation routes are restored and geopolitical risks decline, this portion of the risk premium in oil prices could quickly disappear.
But if the situation continues to escalate, $100 may not be a resistance level, but merely a new starting point.
#国际油价重回100美元