LiuSanPao

U.S. stocks are broadly extending their premarket gains, and crypto-related stocks are up too. Tonight’s U.S. market open will have a big impact on Bitcoin. My 74000 long can safely make it across to 74800

At 6, I posted the gains at the time

Nvidia up 3.84% premarket
CoreWeave up 11% premarket
SK Hynix up 7.6% premarket
SanDisk 6.8%
Micron 5.5%

The gains at 8:30 now are

Nvidia up 4.02% premarket
CoreWeave up 17.18% premarket
SK Hynix up 8.23% premarket
SanDisk 8.6%
Micron 6.62%

CoreWeave’s earnings report carries some weight. AI capex has peaked? Compute demand is declining? It

AI computing leader CoreWeave’s earnings blew past expectations
And South Korean chip exports surged again

With these two pieces of news hitting at once, U.S. stocks look fierce today—set to surge
I canceled my short at 74450 outright; I already took profit and exited my long at 73200

CoreWeave’s quarterly revenue was $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year. And that’s not all: it explicitly said customers’ demand for computing power in 2027 will be 10 times what it is now, giving the AI industry another boost in confidence. Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix are all surging in premarket trading to

This analyst took a long position in US stocks or Bitcoin
They didn’t expect Waller’s remark that a 50-basis-point rate hike in December was possible to send things crashing, and the market plunged yesterday

Their account is either losing money or getting liquidated, so they’re flying off the handle
Now they’re blaming Warsh for giving Fed officials free rein and criticizing him for letting them speak freely and disrupt the market

Isn’t the fact that core CPI has come in above expectations for three months straight? A rate hike is all but certain, so it’s not unreasonable to suggest a 50-bas

CL U.S. crude has barely moved; same old story

Crude oil’s three main drivers are supply and demand, geopolitics, and transportation. It’s always the same three factors influencing oil prices.

Supply and demand are gradually becoming less tight. Diesel is being substituted wherever possible, and things are nowhere near as tight as they were in the first half of the year, when core OPEC+ voluntarily cut production to curb supply. A lot of oil is also flowing around the world through gray channels; more on that later.

Geopolitical tensions have eased considerably. When the Strait of Hormuz wa

The hotter-than-expected CPI has locked in a December rate hike; Bitcoin has only one path left: a corrective rebound, then another drop

First, my conclusion:
The CPI release directly affects Bitcoin shorts in two ways

1. The market sees a 25-basis-point rate hike in December as 100% certain
2. CPI has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, and Waller agreed to a 50-basis-point hike, amplifying yesterday's drop and helping us catch a long at 72899 and exit at 84000 today

Waller has now signaled a 50-basis-point hike. Bitcoin's direct drop is the market pricing in expectations o

What a shame about this long position. I’m afraid I won’t get another chance to get back in; the price only dipped to 73,300

This last CPI release before a Fed rate hike came in above expectations, effectively prompting the market to price in a 25-basis-point rate hike with 100% probability

At first, I thought it didn’t matter since there was no annual rate. Who knew the reaction would be so strong? I expected to go long around 73,000, but I simply couldn’t get in with a market order, and there was no way I was going to place a limit order as high as 73,360

If I were all-seeing and all-know

CPI is out, and the core monthly rate is starting to come in 0.3% above expectations—a major bearish signal

Wick incoming, wick incoming

The low was 73231, but it didn’t reach my target level for going long, so I’ll keep waiting. Once it hits 72899, I can open a long on Bitcoin. I’m flat, so I can finally go for it without worrying this time

The entire internet caught Mr. Huang cheating
His wife walked away with $500 billion of the family fortune
His mistress was taken away by the FBI for questioning
Mr. Huang was brutally impeached by the board

In a late-night diner, Mr. Huang took the last of his flour, water, and oil
And quietly hand-pulled noodles by the door to support his family

Even the tallest tower starts from the ground; glory is built through your own efforts

It’s basically certain that rates will be raised on the second Thursday in December
Now it’s just a question of whether the increase will be 25 or 50 basis points

The Fed has two major tasks: get employment under control and get inflation under control

Employment is basically under control already, with job numbers continuing to grow month after month
Last month, expectations were for 65k jobs, but 165k were reported, which is a very strong employment figure
If things continue to improve next month, that would be perfect—employment really will be under control

Inflation is high, and Waller

Full employment + price stability are Fed's Warsh's top priorities

The Fed's tolerance for inflation has been pushed to the limit. As long as today's CPI isn't significantly below expectations, a December rate hike should be all but certain; if it exceeds expectations, a December rate hike is a sure thing.

Everything is in place for a rate hike; all that's missing is a gust of wind from today's CPI
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, far above expectations of 70,000. Full employment has been achieved.
Now only price stability remains. Once the inflation data confirms it, the Fed's job will be

Looks like Trump has really been constrained for too long and needs Iran’s nuclear restrictions in exchange for economic relief

I woke up early and saw that the US-Iran issue was over? How did they agree to retain uranium enriched to 3.67% and release $6 billion-$9 billion in frozen assets?

After looking into it from several angles, I found this is a win-win
Iran has highly enriched uranium at 60%, and is allowed to use uranium enriched to 3.67%
It also gets $6 billion-$9 billion in frozen overseas assets, mostly oil revenue

1. Iran needs to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, li

As those of us who are into Bitcoin, we should really hope the US and Iran both honor their commitments.

Assume we're now in the middle stage of a major bull-market correction. Why can't prices keep going up? The core reason is that there's no money. Central banks around the world have high interest rates, and people are putting their money in banks because the interest is high. With lending standards so strict, what institution would take out a loan just to bet on Bitcoin?

Without new money coming in, Bitcoin is basically a pile of nothing. And on top of that, oil was previously $100 a barr

If things go smoothly between the U.S. and Iran, CL crude oil still has further to fall, to below $70 at least

Why do I say this?

You think $85.4 a barrel is already very low? How could that be? After the memorandum of understanding was signed on June 19, have you forgotten how low U.S. crude fell? From $91, it plunged straight to $67—that’s the benchmark for oil prices after U.S.-Iran risks are resolved

Oil prices are still very, very high. If Iran is willing to make concessions first, dilute its enriched uranium to 3.67%, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and clear the mines to ensure safe pas