As those of us who are into Bitcoin, we should really hope the US and Iran both honor their commitments.

Assume we're now in the middle stage of a major bull-market correction. Why can't prices keep going up? The core reason is that there's no money. Central banks around the world have high interest rates, and people are putting their money in banks because the interest is high. With lending standards so strict, what institution would take out a loan just to bet on Bitcoin?

Without new money coming in, Bitcoin is basically a pile of nothing. And on top of that, oil was previously $100 a barrel—scarily expensive. High oil prices drive energy inflation: fuel for planes costs more, fuel for cars costs more, so driving and flying cost more, and energy inflation squeezes people's cost of living.

Here's another factor: semiconductor memory prices have surged this year, making computers and phones more expensive and raising companies' operating costs. Personal electronics cost more too, further squeezing operating costs and the cost of living. That's AI-driven inflation.

So CPI is high, life is too hard for ordinary people, and they have even less money to invest in Bitcoin. Only the middle class and those without assets are selling their coins to pay for living expenses.

Now Trump has stirred things up with Iran, sending US oil from 107 to 67, then back up to 106, and now down to 85. It looks like peace may be imminent, inflation seems likely to ease, CPI may come down, and AI stocks have returned to normal levels. It seems like everything is lining up for rate cuts next year. I think that's pretty bullish.

Looking at the big picture, from my perspective, I'm waiting for three things:
1. The Democrats' regulatory outlook to be fully realized
2. Inflation to clearly fall back to 2%-2.5%
3. Rate-cut expectations to take hold

That's when it's time to go fully long and take a long-term bullish position. Assuming this is a major mid-cycle bull-market correction, this is the bull-market turning point—the signal that a bull market is starting. The absolute lowest range is 68000-70000, where you can start building long-term long positions.#美国10月CPI即将公布 $BTC