First,LoseTenSmallTargets

First, the conclusion: Yesterday’s daily candle closed lower, with a pullback of more than 2,000 points, and the comments section became lively again. Some say it will fall to 75,000, while others say it will drop to 72,000. My view remains unchanged: it is facing short-term resistance and pressure, but the long-term bullish logic remains intact, and the downside is extremely limited.

The price hasn’t moved in any clear direction for two weeks, and many people are starting to have doubts. I see this sideways movement as the part of this cycle that deserves the closest attention.

After rallying to 87,000 early this morning, I closed all my long positions and am now flat. Exiting does not mean I’m bearish; we reached an upper horizontal resistance level, so it was time to take profits. From here, my approach is simple: don’t chase shorts—wait for a pullback to enter longs.

Back to the chart. This move was dumped from above 87,200, and 84,000 was breached, which many people interpreted as weakness. I think the opposite is true. The horizontal support below has been tested repeatedly for a long time without being broken; whether price was pushed up and dumped back down, it still held. The support remains valid—this is strength. True weakness is when support gives way at the first test.

Someone asked how to develop the right mindset and follow through on stop-losses. My answer may not be easy to hear: most people fail to execute stop-losses not because of a lack of discipline, but because they are unwilling to accept losses.

Conclusion first: The support range below has not yet been decisively broken to the downside, and the overall structure remains bullish. I’ll treat this as a short-term buy-the-dip setup and won’t try to guess a lower low.

The comments section has had a very consistent tone these past two days: a bearish divergence has appeared on the daily chart, with price making a higher high while the indicator forms a lower high, along with signs of a possible death cross—so claims that “this is about to crash” have started to emerge.

Someone asked roughly when altseason will arrive. Looking at the past few cycles, altseason basically appears in the middle to late stages of a Bitcoin bull market, when the market sees broad-based gains. We clearly haven’t reached that point yet—Bitcoin itself is still on the way to breaking its previous high. Also, altseason means broad-based gains; it doesn’t mean every altcoin will rise. The coins that are already performing relatively well may actually have limited upside from here, while those that haven’t started moving and have not even outperformed Bitcoin are not worth buying right now. This judgment may seem counterintuitive, but an altcoin that has risen less than Bitcoin shows that capital simply hasn’t chosen it.

Bottom line: The weekly tower bottom has formed, and after breaking above the previous high of 82800, I view the current pullback as a healthy correction, not a reversal. There is a need for a short-term adjustment, but there is no need to panic—I’m not changing my overall direction.

Someone asked how high I see this bull market cycle going. I previously drew an ascending channel when it was at $60k, and I currently expect this cycle’s high to test the channel’s upper boundary, with a short-term target of $126,000 to $130k. I have a subjective guess about the magnitude of pullbacks: as the downside in bear markets shrinks from cycle to cycle, pullbacks during bull markets will also become smaller, and the 20% drops that used to occur frequently will become increasingly difficult to see—but this is based on experience, not a hard rule.