WildfireAlpha

Yesterday’s CPI data was bearish, with both the core monthly and annual rates exceeding expectations!
Tonight will bring the PPI data and the U.S. September retail sales monthly rate, both of which are also somewhat related to inflation.
PPI is the Producer Price Index. A reported figure > the expected figure is bearish,
and the same applies to the retail sales monthly rate: reported figure > expected figure = bearish!
Simply put:
Rising raw-material PPI (Producer Price Index) → higher production costs for factories → after some time, factories pass on the higher costs → higher supermarket retail prices (CPI rises) → higher inflation!
This time, CPI moved ahead of PPI, which is a rare occurrence.
Retail sales monthly rate:
This measures the total amount ordinary people spend buying physical goods!
In other words, when ordinary people are willing to spend heavily (strong retail data) → strong demand for goods → merchants dare to raise prices → inflation rises!
The relationship with CPI is that CPI measures how much prices have risen, while retail sales measures how much money was spent in total—it reflects consumption capacity! Sufficient consumption capacity and a willingness to spend are also among the drivers of inflation.
Strong consumption (high retail sales) → strong demand → more likely to push CPI prices higher
We will not forecast the data. It is most prudent to assess whether it is bullish or bearish after the data is released, based on the reported figure.
Next comes Waller’s speech on Friday. This CPI reading was bearish, so let’s see whether Waller’s remarks are dovish or hawkish!
There are basically no other macroeconomic events this week, so we can just look forward to the weekend. #美国9月CPI超预期 #美国9月PPI数据公布

$ETH I went short immediately after the data was released and am currently up 3x. I can take a rest now.#美国9月CPI超预期

CPI is broadly bearish; see the quoted post for the specific impact!
📌 Key point: The core annual rate not only exceeded expectations but also surpassed the previous reading, and this time there should be no revision. #美国9月CPI超预期

CPI data will be released tomorrow!
Let’s first briefly explain what CPI is and how the logic chain works:
CPI is the Consumer Price Index, which measures how quickly prices are rising. A higher CPI = higher inflation.
The core chain in one sentence: Inflation is too high → the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates or maintain high rates → borrowing costs for companies become more expensive and funds are withdrawn from the market → U.S. stocks come under pressure and fall!
As long as rate-hike expectations and high rates remain, they will support the dollar. Funds flowing into the dollar will be withdrawn from other markets. The dollar is a risk-free asset, and U.S. Treasuries are also risk-free assets, so risk assets will come under pressure and fall.
In short:
CPI comes in above expectations (inflation rebounds)
The market will believe that the Federal Reserve will maintain high rates or even continue raising rates.
Borrowing costs rise, market liquidity tightens, and funds become less willing to hold high-risk assets. Cryptocurrencies are likely to fall, with volatility often greater than that of U.S. stocks.
CPI comes in below expectations (inflation cools)
The market will anticipate that rate cuts may come later.
Money becomes cheaper, liquidity loosens, and funds become more willing to seek returns. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies have high elasticity and are more likely to rise.
This CPI release (core):
Monthly rate: previous 0.3%, forecast 0.2%. A result in line with or below expectations is bullish, while a result above expectations is bearish. If it is above both expectations and the previous reading, it would be severely bearish.
Annual rate: previous 2.4%, forecast 2.5%. The logic is the same.
Note: The monthly rate affects the short term, while the annual rate has a greater impact on the long term. Those trading macro cycles should pay more attention to the annual rate.
This CPI release is relatively contradictory, so I won’t make a prediction. It would be better to wait for the release, observe the market’s reaction, and then determine whether the outlook is bullish or bearish.#美国9月CPI即将公布

$PONS ‌Bought some PONS; if it drops, I’ll add to my position and plan to hold for a while!
The tentative take-profit target is 0.3485.

$PONS ‌Bought some PONS; if it drops, I’ll add to my position and plan to hold for a while!
The tentative take-profit target is 0.3485.

$FF This is a coin with strong control by the manipulators; the blockchain explorer shows that the top three addresses hold most of the chips, and there are very few chips outside!
The last time it was pumped up and shaken out, and now it looks like the daily chart is about to rise again. This wave is expected to reach around 0.15, making it a pretty good target.
The advantage is that the chips are concentrated; as long as you don't sell, there’s no problem. The downside is also that the chips are concentrated, and if the big players move, it will be rapid.
Enter when the time is right; you can participate! Control your position well, and there shouldn’t be much issue. #FF