This $4 candle was still above 0.0202 yesterday, but today a single large bearish candle crashed straight through 0.0153, with 24-hour trading volume surging to $98 million. This price-volume relationship wasn’t caused by retail traders dumping—it was the main force offloading. I’ve watched charts for eight years, and I’ve seen this pattern far too many times. If the price doesn’t immediately reclaim 0.0165 after the plunge, it means the bears haven’t finished yet.
Technically, the 4-hour MACD death cross is widening, and RSI has already dropped to the oversold zone at 28. But note that oversold does not mean a bottom is in; a low-volume grind lower is the most dangerous. Right now, 0.0138 is the short-term make-or-break level. Once it breaks, the downside is the previous chip vacuum zone around 0.0122. On the other hand, if the price can reclaim 0.0160 on heavy volume today, that would be a classic false-breakdown bear trap, offering an opportunity to cautiously go long with a small position.
My trading plan: Don’t chase shorts at 0.0153. Wait for a rebound to around 0.0162 before shorting with a light position, set the stop-loss at 0.0170, and target 0.0122 after 0.0138 breaks. If you want to bet on a rebound, you must wait for a bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart and for hourly volume to increase to more than $5 million before entering. Set the stop-loss at 0.0135 and take profit at 0.0158. Keep the position size below 10% of total capital. Volatility is too high in this market, and going in heavy is just giving money away.
Don’t ask me how I know. Last year, with the same pattern, $SomeCoin fell from 0.03 to 0.018, and all the retail traders who tried to catch the falling knife got buried. The current price action of $4 is just copy-paste; the only difference is that trading volume is larger, showing that the disagreement is more severe. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on 0.0138: chase shorts with the trend if it breaks, and consolidate if it holds. I’m still holding my short position; unless the price moves above 0.0165, I won’t add to or close it.
Technically, the 4-hour MACD death cross is widening, and RSI has already dropped to the oversold zone at 28. But note that oversold does not mean a bottom is in; a low-volume grind lower is the most dangerous. Right now, 0.0138 is the short-term make-or-break level. Once it breaks, the downside is the previous chip vacuum zone around 0.0122. On the other hand, if the price can reclaim 0.0160 on heavy volume today, that would be a classic false-breakdown bear trap, offering an opportunity to cautiously go long with a small position.
My trading plan: Don’t chase shorts at 0.0153. Wait for a rebound to around 0.0162 before shorting with a light position, set the stop-loss at 0.0170, and target 0.0122 after 0.0138 breaks. If you want to bet on a rebound, you must wait for a bullish divergence on the 15-minute chart and for hourly volume to increase to more than $5 million before entering. Set the stop-loss at 0.0135 and take profit at 0.0158. Keep the position size below 10% of total capital. Volatility is too high in this market, and going in heavy is just giving money away.
Don’t ask me how I know. Last year, with the same pattern, $SomeCoin fell from 0.03 to 0.018, and all the retail traders who tried to catch the falling knife got buried. The current price action of $4 is just copy-paste; the only difference is that trading volume is larger, showing that the disagreement is more severe. Short-term traders should keep a close eye on 0.0138: chase shorts with the trend if it breaks, and consolidate if it holds. I’m still holding my short position; unless the price moves above 0.0165, I won’t add to or close it.
