What is model calibration? Why doesn’t a 70% probability of a price increase mean the price will definitely rise?

In cryptocurrency quantitative trading, a machine learning model may predict a 70% probability that BTC will rise in the next period. But this does not mean the price will definitely rise, nor does it mean the model is actually 70% accurate. To understand whether probability predictions are reliable, it is important to understand model calibration (Probability Calibration).

First, what is model calibration?

Model calibration concerns whether predicted probabilities match actual

Congratulations to MaxVerstappen for perfect tactics and a solid P2 finish 🥈, with Isack putting on a stunning performance right behind him to claim P3 🥉! Max and Isack both made the podium, taking speed and passion to the extreme!

Pursuing ultimate speed and constantly pushing the limits—this is not only the Red Bull spirit on the track, but also the belief that
Gate has always stood by! Keep it up and keep charging!
‍#GateVIP #RedBullRacing #F1巴西站 #F1

What Is the RSI Indicator? How Can the Relative Strength Index Be Used to Identify Market Momentum and Potential Overbought/Oversold Zones?

In crypto trading, BTC may suddenly pull back after rising for several consecutive sessions, or rebound after a prolonged decline. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a common momentum indicator that can help traders assess the relative strength of recent price gains and losses, but it cannot accurately predict every market reversal.

First, what is RSI?

RSI typically ranges from 0 to 100, with 14 periods as a common setting. It reflects recent price mo

What Are Precision and Recall? Why Should Trading Models Not Just Chase More Bullish Signals?

In crypto quantitative trading, a model may generate many bullish signals every day, but more signals do not mean more profitable opportunities. If a model frequently mistakes a downtrend for an uptrend, traders may repeatedly hit stop-losses. Precision and recall measure a model’s ability to identify bullish opportunities from different perspectives.

First, what is precision?

Precision is the proportion of samples that actually rise among all those the model classifies as bullish. Suppose the mode

What Are ROC Curves and AUC? How Can You Tell Whether a Price Direction Prediction Model Can Truly Distinguish Between Outcomes?

In crypto quantitative trading, you can’t judge whether a model is effective by accuracy alone. Suppose BTC spends most of its time without a major rise. A model that always predicts a decline might still achieve seemingly good accuracy, yet fail to identify genuine opportunities to go long. ROC curves and AUC can help us assess a model’s ability to distinguish between different outcomes.

First, what is an ROC curve?

An ROC curve compares the true positive rate wi

Short-term bearish sentiment is pervasive, but has the medium- to long-term trend actually broken down? Looking beyond daily chart noise, we’ll comprehensively assess the outlook for BTC and ETH based on long-term moving-average structures, token turnover, and macro themes! Bitcoin market analysis $BTC $ETH Latest YouTube video from Chain Blade: Bitcoin market analysis

🚨 Trump Media's $409.7M Q3 Profit Raises an Interesting Question About Crypto!

Trump Media, the company behind Truth Social, has reported $409.7 million in Q3 profit, with gains from its digital asset holdings contributing significantly to the result.

This is an interesting development because it shows how crypto exposure can influence the financial performance of a publicly traded company.

The bigger story isn't just the profit figure. It's how digital assets are becoming increasingly relevant to corporate balance sheets.

Could we see more companies using crypto holdings as part of their

What Is Price-Volume Divergence? Why Might Prices Keep Hitting New Highs While Trading Volume Gradually Declines?

In cryptocurrency trading, when the price of BTC continues to rise without a corresponding increase in trading volume, this phenomenon warrants attention. It may indicate a change in market participation, and it may also suggest that the sustainability of the current trend needs further confirmation. However, price-volume divergence is not an inevitable reversal signal; it must be assessed alongside price structure and market conditions.

First, what is price-volume divergence?

P

US stocks surge; don't make the same mistake again

When US stocks rise, a familiar phenomenon always appears in the market: just a few days ago, people were warning about risk, and now some are already discussing price targets.
AI tech stocks in particular: as soon as they post consecutive gains, investor enthusiasm is like a faucet being turned on.
But is this really the right time to buy the dip?
First, distinguish between a technical rebound and a trend reversal. A technical rebound usually occurs after a stock has undergone a significant correction, when some investors believe the price h

AI agents are no longer just a concept at product launches—they’re entering the congressional legislative process. S.5051 is called the AI AGENT Act. What’s most notable isn’t “tougher regulation,” but giving your personal agent an “ID card.” According to the bill’s text, agents on platforms with more than 50 million U.S. users could gain legal authority to act on users’ behalf, even in areas like personal finance. Imagine asking your agent to move 10% of your paycheck into a money market fund every month, automatically compare prices before renewing subscriptions, pay your credit card bill on

What if your inbox paid you for your attention?

Most professionals receive dozens of unwanted messages every day. Spam, automated promotions and random sales pitches waste valuable time.

Liberdus introduces an interesting idea: The Paid Inbox Economy.

Here is how it works:

• Known contacts and verified connections can message you for free.

• Unknown senders must pay a small $LIB fee to reach your main inbox.

• 90% of the fee goes directly to the receiver.

• The remaining 10% is permanently burned, reducing the token supply.

But Liberdus is not just about monetising messages.

It combin

How should we put it: weight-loss shots can cause blindness?
On the same day the FDA said weight-loss shots may harm the eyes, Lilly closed up 4.3%—it seems the market didn’t take the warning seriously at all 😂
On November 9, the FDA required all GLP-1 drugs to update their labels. Semaglutide, tirzepatide, and the weight-loss pill Lilly got approved this year are all included, with a warning about the risk of the rare eye disease NAION, which can cause permanent vision loss in one eye.
That same day, Lilly issued a press release saying its phase 3 trial of the weight-loss pill Foundayo found

Bulls Are Trapped: $ONDO USDT Short Setup Is Ready to Go

$ONDO /USDT

Direction: SHORT

Entry Zone: 0.3697000

Take-Profit Targets
🔹 TP1: 0.3594530
🔹 TP2: 0.3526217
🔹 TP3: 0.3423748

🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.3833626

$ONDO ‌

#KOR I'm planning to sell my house and car to buy you. Don't raise your price yet, you son of a bitch—wait for me

$SOL ‌
The market structure has clearly shifted bearish, transitioning from a consolidation phase above 89.00 to a sharp breakdown, printing a lower low at 85.01 and establishing a new downtrend characterized by lower highs and lower lows.

K line analysis: Price action is currently compressed and heavy, trading below the midline of the Bollinger Bands (MB: 86.52), which acts as dynamic resistance; the candles are printing small bodies with wicks, indicating indecision but a lack of buying pressure, while the MACD remains flat below the zero line, showing momentum is paused but not reversed.

Damn, 15199 yuan for a bottle of liquor.
I’ll never forget those days when I was liquidated trading, drifting from place to place, and couldn’t even afford a meal.
Now, having gradually achieved results through trading, I stay true to my original aspirations and see things through to the end.
I’m grateful for what the market has given back, and thankful for the recognition from all my friends. Grateful to my friend for gifting me Moutai!

On Nov 9, @Kinetiq_xyz’s Elysium launched with two different tokens benefiting from the same activity.
The economics are quite specific:
> $HYPE is used to pay network gas
> @Enter_Elysium settles to HyperEVM
> 50% of sequencer revenue is allocated to $KNTQ buybacks
> 100ms blocks and 300 Mgas/s are the stated performance specifications
This creates two potential forms of demand from one network.
$HYPE benefits from gas usage. $KNTQ has an explicit sequencer-revenue buyback mechanism.
But 50% of revenue means little until applications begin generating recurring fees.
The $KNTQ thesis is theref