ICan_tUnderstandSOL

Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there is no need to panic.
This time, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, well above expectations; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, unchanged from the previous month; average hourly earnings rose +0.3% month-on-month and +3.1% year-on-year.
At first glance, it is indeed relatively strong.
But I don't think this data can simply be interpreted as “an immediate rate hike.”
Among the job gains, food services added 59,000 and local government education added 42,000; these two sectors alone contributed a combined 101,000, accounting for th

Japanese government bond yields reach 3%, and many people’s first reaction is:
What does this have to do with me?
Actually, quite a lot.
Because Japan has been one of the important sources of low-interest-rate funds globally for decades.
As Japanese interest rates rise again, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hover around 5%, and oil prices move higher, global markets are essentially recalculating:
Is money still cheap?
If the answer becomes “No, it isn’t cheap,” the valuation logic for many assets will change.
High-valuation tech stocks will have to face renewed discount-rate pressure;
Corporate b

What the market really needs to watch today is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at 20:30 tonight.
The ADP private payrolls report already gave a signal:
Job gains in August came in at 38,000, below expectations of 47,000 and the previous reading of 44,000.
Simply put, the labor market is starting to cool.
That is why Treasury yields fell from the intraday high of 4.82% to around 4.78%, while expectations for a September rate hike also cooled.
But the problem is that ADP is only a warm-up.
What can really influence the Fed’s decision is still tonight’s payrolls, unemployment rate, and wage data

Many people see “the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5%” and their first reaction is: What does this have to do with me buying stocks?
A lot.
Because the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is essentially a ruler for pricing global assets.
When this ruler keeps moving higher, the market will ask itself a new question:
Why should I still take on risk to buy highly valued assets?
If the yield on virtually risk-free U.S. Treasuries is already approaching 5%, then assets such as stocks, gold, BTC, and tech shares must offer stronger reasons to continue attracting capital.
So 5% is not some mystica

Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 Historical Statistics
A complete reconstruction of historical statistics since the indexes were launched.
First, frequency of volatility.
The Nasdaq-100’s decline frequency at every level is significantly higher than that of the S&P 500.
For 1% declines alone, the Nasdaq-100 averages around 20 more occurrences per year than the S&P 500.
With 250 trading days in a year, that’s 20 more times. In other words, you take an extra hit every two weeks.
Most people are not defeated by bear markets; they are worn down by these frequent small fluctuations. Watching the market every

What the market is really watching now is not whether U.S. stocks rise today, but whether the Federal Reserve will put “rate hikes” back on the table.
After Warsh spoke at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 28, expectations for a September rate hike clearly increased.
This change is very important.
Because once the market starts repricing rate hikes, it will affect not just one stock, but the entire asset chain:
U.S. Treasury yields will move first,
the dollar will react next,
and gold, BTC, tech stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares will all be revalued by capital.
The following dates

The key point of these new home-buying rules is not to “encourage everyone to leverage up,” but to put mortgages back within a clear set of rules.
On August 28, the Measures for the Administration of Individual Housing Loans (Trial) were released. Homebuyers should pay attention to 6 points:
1️⃣First, mortgage terms can now be as long as 40 years.
This will reduce monthly payment pressure, but it does not mean a longer loan is always better. Extending the term essentially spreads out the repayment burden, while also meaning a longer period of total interest payments.
2️⃣Second, disbursement ti

The Magnificent 7 in U.S. stocks are no longer one single story.
In the past, when people mentioned the Magnificent 7, it was easy to treat them as the same type of asset: big tech, strong cash flow, deep moats, and heavy index weightings.
But after looking at this batch of Q2 earnings reports, it is clear that they have already diverged significantly.
The first category is the “AI infrastructure engine.”
The most typical example is NVIDIA. Revenue rose 106% year over year, while profit and cash flow were both extraordinarily strong. It is no longer an ordinary chip company, but the core gatew

This week in U.S. stocks, don't just focus on gains and losses.
The three real keywords this week are:
Jobs, the Fed, and AI.
1️⃣At the start of the month, focus first on manufacturing PMI and JOLTS.
PMI shows whether U.S. manufacturing is continuing to expand, while JOLTS shows whether the labor market remains tight. What the market is most sensitive to now is not the data itself, but how the data will affect interest-rate expectations.
2️⃣If employment remains strong, the market will worry that the Fed will continue to lean hawkish.
If employment suddenly weakens, it could benefit rate-cut t

Guys, the most important thing about Jackson Hole this time is not “whether rates will be cut in September.”
What really matters is that the Fed has pulled back market expectations for rate cuts once again.
Warsh’s speech sent three signals:
First, the 2% inflation target remains a hard constraint.
As long as core inflation has not clearly returned to target, it will be difficult for the Fed to concede defeat early.
Second, the U.S. economy is not yet weak enough to require rescue.
Employment, consumption, and corporate investment have not collapsed across the board, so the market’s desired “i

For ordinary people learning to invest, the most important thing to develop is not “financial knowledge,” but a chain of judgment.
Many people immediately ask:
What should I buy?
When should I buy?
Will it rise?
What should I do if it falls?
But without a system, these questions ultimately turn into emotional trading.
A genuine investment system should start with the macro level and work downward step by step:
Is the economy heating up or cooling down?
Is the central bank easing or tightening?
Where are interest rates headed?
Is credit expanding or contracting?
Are people more willing to put m

Guys, in a high-interest-rate environment, tech stocks are no longer rising or falling together—they’re beginning to diverge.
The actual transmission path is very simple:
As U.S. and Japanese long-term bond yields rise, the global risk-free rate benchmark is pushed higher, and the valuations of all assets have to be recalculated. The first to come under pressure are often high-valuation growth stocks, especially assets such as AI, tech, and emerging markets that are priced based on “future cash flows.”
But here’s the question: why can some tech stocks fall while others can actually hold up?
Th

Guys, financial markets have actually been repeating the same cycle all along:
Money becomes cheaper, and everyone starts feeling optimistic.
After optimism lasts for a while, leverage rises.
As leverage builds, bubbles emerge.
When bubbles burst, credit contracts.
Finally, policy steps in to rescue the market, the market recovers, and the next cycle begins again.
It looks like every crisis has a different name.
Sometimes it’s real estate, sometimes tech stocks, sometimes banks, and sometimes cryptocurrency.
But the underlying logic is very similar:
When credit expands, risks are underestimate

Guys, Pelosi’s latest holdings have been revealed again.
It’s the same familiar playbook—firmly betting on “core tech giants + the AI supply chain + deep in-the-money options.” Locking in profits at high levels, using leverage to amplify gains, then making minor diversification adjustments. She is still looking for tech assets that could see substantial growth in the next phase.
The top holdings are clear: Nvidia at roughly 18%, Broadcom and Google at 14% each, Palo Alto Networks at 10%, CrowdStrike at 8%, Vistra at 7%, Amazon at 6%, and Tempus AI at 5%, followed by short-term U.S. Treasury ET

Guys, don’t simply interpret Dalio’s view this time as “he’s calling for gold and BTC.”
What he’s really worried about is the cycle between U.S. debt, interest rates, and monetary credibility.
The CBO expects the U.S. deficit for fiscal year 2026 to be about $1.9 trillion, with net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion. The issue is not that the U.S. will default tomorrow, but that as debt keeps piling up, the market will start demanding higher long-term interest rates to compensate for the risk.
This will create a very troublesome chain:
A widening deficit means more debt issuance.
Long-ter

Guys, the most interesting thing about Vance’s holdings isn’t that he bought some obscure moonshot stocks, but that his allocation is very “ordinary person.”
The core holdings are basically three major broad-market ETFs: Q, SPY, and DIA.
Put simply, they represent the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.
He isn’t trying to chase hot trends every day, but is placing most of his holdings in America’s long-term growth.
This is well worth considering for ordinary investors.
Many people assume that wealthy people must have very complicated investment strategies—either they have inside information, buy p

The hardest part of trading is not understanding the market, but understanding yourself!
Brothers, when many people read “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” for the first time, they think it is about how a trading genius made a fortune on Wall Street.
But I think the true value of this book lies not in teaching you how to trade short term, nor in telling you how to capture every fluctuation through the order book.
What it truly does brilliantly is portray, with striking realism, how the market magnifies a trader’s desire, fear, and arrogance.
Livermore was not an ordinary person.
He showed an