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November 2 Gold Morning Brief
Gold plunged sharply last Friday, falling nearly $160 and becoming severely oversold. It touched an intraday low near $3,870 and closed near $3,876. The daily chart formed a large bearish candle, breaking straight through the key 3,900 level as bearish momentum was fully unleashed.
Fundamentally, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its decision early Thursday morning last week, but that does not mean dovish views are in control. Fed Chair Warsh hinted that there is still room for rate hikes, and market expectations for a 25-basis-point hike in December rose to over 70%, with some even forecasting odds close to or above 90%. In addition, AI stocks on Wall Street suffered a blow, prompting most institutions to sell assets, while gold, as a liquid asset, was also sold off to cover margin shortfalls. This was the direct trigger for last Friday’s panic selling in gold.
Technically, the large bearish daily candle broke through all moving-average support, with the entire moving-average system turning downward. The MACD bearish crossover came with expanding volume, and the green histogram bars continued to grow, confirming the bearish trend. Gold remains in a downward channel over the longer term. In the short term, the three KDJ lines on the hourly chart are deeply oversold, but keep in mind that this does not mean a bottom is in; gold needs a technical correction after its sharp decline.
For today’s trading, first look for a technical rebound. Watch support near 3,870. If gold holds above this support after the morning open and turns upward, a small short-term long position may be taken to trade the rebound, targeting the 3,920–3,930 area, with a stop-loss below 3,860. Then watch how price reacts to resistance near 3,930. If the rebound meets resistance there, a short position may be opened in the opposite direction, targeting the 3,880–3,870 area.
Note: Long positions are for a short-term trade on a potential rebound, not a bet on a trend reversal. Until the bearish trend turns, be sure to take profits and exit long positions promptly.
The above content represents my personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; exercise caution when entering the market. Please manage your position size appropriately and make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.#黄金 #伦敦金 $XAUUSD ‌