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Shorts in long bonds are starting to turn bullish, and that’s more worth watching than the recession signal itself. TLT is still more than halfway below its 2020 high, and Kalshi puts the odds of a recession in 2027 at just 20%. My plan is simple: don’t rush to go long duration unless yields actually come down. Wait until recession pricing is confirmed. Thin liquidity during the Asian session often produces absurd prices, which are perfect for placing limit orders. If you have anything to add, drop it in the comments.

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KALSHIKALSHI+0.00%

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Comment 2
MorningStarScavenger
Does this position count as a glimmer of hope for TLT, or should we wait and see
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Is that 20% for Kalshi too optimistic