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Looking at the chart, we can clearly see a bullish market structure shift (MSS) has occurred. Price broke out of a consolidation phase around the 7.160 level, sweeping liquidity to the downside before aggressively rallying upwards to peak at 8.399. Currently, the structure is in a retracement phase, pulling back from those highs to test previous support levels around 7.938.
The candlesticks show a strong impulsive move upward followed by a corrective, choppy downtrend. The most recent candles are printing red, indicating short-term bearish momentum and a consolidation phase as the market digests the previous massive pump.
The best approach here is to wait for a confirmation of support. I will look for a bullish reversal candlestick pattern near the 7.700 - 7.800 region. If price confirms support, I will enter a long position targeting a retest of the 8.399 swing high.
I predict that the price will continue to drift slightly lower to fill the fair value gap (FVG) left during the initial breakout, likely finding strong demand between 7.600 and 7.800, before continuing its macro uptrend.
What trade plan I follow and why ❓️
I am following a trend-continuation plan. The reason is simple: the overall momentum and volume (as seen on the 24h stats and the strong green candles) heavily favor the bulls. The current downward movement is just a healthy pullback.
When I start my trade❓️
I will start my trade only when the 1-hour candle closes above the local resistance level or forms a clear bullish reversal pattern (like a strong engulfing or a long lower wick) within the demand zone.
Currently, we are seeing a series of small-bodied candles with long upper wicks, which suggests indecision and buyer exhaustion in the short term. This looks like a bearish flag or a falling wedge forming on the lower timeframes.
Which trade setup is better for this time❓️
While harmonic patterns like a Gartley or classical patterns like Head and Shoulders are valid, they are lagging and subjective to draw on this specific chart. The Smart Money Concept (SMC) setup (trading off the Order Block/FVG and structural break) is much better for this current scenario. The impulsive move up clearly left an imbalance that the market is naturally looking to mitigate, making a "buy the dip" SMC setup the most logical choice right now.
Final Verdict: The chart is currently in a bullish retracement. Do not chase the price down, but rather let the price come to you. Set limit orders or price alerts near the 7.700-7.800 level. The bias remains long as long as the price holds above the 7.160 swing low.