#USJoblessClaimsTonight #美国就业数据今晚公布 ‍#DailyStandouts #ShareWeekly #WCTCS9 $BTC $TLT

Tonight’s jobless claims will not move markets as much as CPI did, but it lands at an unusual moment. Let me set the stage with three numbers, then walk through the outcomes.

Three numbers before the print

The forecast is about 194,000, the previous reading was 189,000, and the four week average is about 194,750. So the market expects a small rise that puts claims right back on their recent average. Continuing claims are expected near 1.72 million, almost unchanged. A move from 189,000 to 194,000 is only about 2.6%, and weekly claims routinely swing by more than that, so I’d treat a miss of under 10,000 as noise.

Why this week is different

Tuesday’s CPI came in hot, with headline up 0.4% and core up 0.3%, both above forecasts. A 0.4% month is a pace of about 4.9% a year, and 0.3% is about 3.7%, by my math. Futures now put December hike odds near 89%, up from about 72% a week earlier, and Governor Waller said the Fed should hike in December. On top of that, bond markets were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day while stocks rallied about 1.3%. So tonight is the first full bond session since CPI, and the 10 year yield is sitting near 5%. Claims may be the first data the bond market trades on its own.

In a hiking mood, the labor logic is reversed

Strong jobs data is not good news right now, because it gives the Fed more room to raise rates. Weak data would lower hike odds, which markets would likely welcome, unless it looks like a slowdown. So I’d read claims through one question: does it change the odds of a December hike?

The outcomes, using my own bands

Below 185,000: a very tight labor market. Hike odds could firm up further, yields could rise, and BTC and long bonds would feel it first.

Between 185,000 and 200,000: in line. The reaction is probably short and the market goes back to arguing about CPI and Friday’s producer prices, which are forecast near 0.4% for the headline.

Between 200,000 and 220,000: a mild cooling. This is the sweet spot for risk assets, because it slows the hike story without screaming recession.

Above 220,000: a clear jump. Hike odds could drop quickly, but growth fears would begin to compete with relief.

What it means for BTC and bonds

My BTC chart shows about 73,560. Support is 73,113, which is 0.6% lower, and 72,464, which is 1.5% lower. Resistance is 75,500 at 2.6% higher, 77,020 at 4.7% higher, 77,869 at 5.9% higher and 80,949 at 10.0% higher. RSI is about 34, close to oversold, and the post CPI dip below 73,000 is the thing to watch.

For bonds, my long Treasury fund chart shows about 81.47, with support at 81.11 and 80.17, and resistance at 82.25, 82.81 and 84.73. RSI is about 51. A fund like this has a duration around 16 years, so each 0.10 point fall in long yields should lift it about 1.6%, which is roughly where 82.81 sits. That makes it a clean read: if claims push yields down by about 10 basis points, the bond fund should reach that level, and BTC would likely follow.

Why I’m cautious about over reading it

Claims are a weekly number with a lot of noise, and the real decision for the Fed is in payrolls and inflation. One week doesn’t change the trend. The recent run of low prints, like 189,000, says the labor market is still firm, which is exactly why the Fed feels free to hike.

My take: I’m not positioning before the print. A single claims number can send yields a few points either way for an hour and then fade. I’d rather see what the bond market does in the first 30 to 60 minutes. For BTC, I’m watching 73,113 on a close, and for bonds I’m watching whether yields can fall below 5% and stay there.

Not financial advice.

Would a clear rise in claims make you more bullish on BTC, or does the slowdown risk worry you more? And do you position before the number or wait for the reaction?

@Gate_Square