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CPI tonight at 21:30: BTC’s short-term direction switch💹〽️
Three scenarios👇
🟢 Dovish (core ≤0.2%): Rate hike expectations ease → rebound to 78.8k, test 81k
🟡 In line with expectations (headline 0.3%/core 0.2%): 80% rate hike odds unchanged → range-bound at 75–78k, stop-loss hunting
🔴 Hawkish (core ≥0.3%): Rate hike odds move higher → break below 74.9k, test 68–70k
The current setup: consecutive ETF outflows, stablecoin supply shrinking, Fear Index at 28—just a game of musical chairs. Without new inflows, don’t fantasize about a V-shaped reversal.
📌 Don’t bet on direction ahead of the data; bet on risk management✊
$BTC