$PI

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The market structure on the 1-hour timeframe has shifted from a slow, grinding bearish distribution to an aggressive breakdown, evidenced by the strong bearish displacement candle that shattered the previous consolidation floor around $0.069. Price has transitioned from a range-bound environment into a clear downtrend, making a new local low at $0.06231, indicating that sellers have taken full control and the previous support zone has flipped into resistance.

The candlesticks are predominantly bearish, forming a "waterfall" descent with very little buying interference, which is highly visible on the steep drop prior to the current candle. The price is currently trading well below the lower Bollinger Band ($0.06381), suggesting an oversold condition, but the bands are expanding downwards, which often indicates strong momentum rather than an immediate reversal; the current candle is showing a slight wick to the downside but lacks strong bullish follow-through.

We are observing a potential "Doji" or "Spinning Top" formation on the current 1-hour candle near the $0.06473 level, following a massive bearish Marubozu-style candle. This suggests indecision and a potential momentary pause or "dead cat bounce" after the intense sell-off, but it is not yet a confirmed reversal signal.

Trading Plan
My plan is to look for a short entry on a retracement back up to the $0.066 - $0.068 region (the previous breakdown zone) or wait for a confirmed rejection at the middle Bollinger Band ($0.06911). I will avoid longing this falling knife until I see a clear structural break to the upside (a higher high) or a bullish divergence on the MACD.

I predict a short-term relief bounce or sideways chop to cool off the oversold indicators (RSI/MACD), followed by a continuation lower to test the $0.060 psychological support. The MACD is deeply negative and below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, though the histogram is printing large red bars indicating the move is extended, making a squeeze back to the mean ($0.065-$0.066) likely before further downside.

What Trade Plan I Follow and Why❓️

I am following a Trend-Following Momentum Strategy. The reason is simple: the 1-hour trend is decisively down, the MACD is expanding bearishly, and the volume spikes on the red candles confirm conviction. Fighting this trend is low probability, so I focus on selling rallies rather than buying dips until the market proves otherwise.

When I Start My Trade❓️

I will start my trade after the current 1-hour candle closes and if the next candle shows rejection (a long upper wick) near $0.066. I need to see the stochastic or MACD lines start to curl up to indicate the retracement is underway before executing a short position, ensuring I have a better risk-to-reward ratio.

Bearish. The chart is heavily biased to the downside with a "breakdown" setup. While a temporary bounce is possible due to the price being outside the Bollinger Bands, the overall structure favors lower prices. Key resistance is at $0.069; as long as price stays below this, the bears are in control.