#StockTalkSeason
#NVIDIA
179.00. That low is the whole story for me.

On the 4-hour chart I am looking at, price went from 220.18 down to 179.00, then bounced to 188.70. After-hours it is up 2.02, +1.08%, intraday at 186.68, +2.80%. Prev close was 181.59. Open was 191.14. 24-hour high 194.89, low 183.81. So we are not at the low anymore, but we are not back either.

Let me put the drop in plain numbers. From 220.18 to 179.00 is about -18.7%. That is not a normal pullback. That is a sharp reset. And it happened while the headline on the same screen says Taiwan index fell 4.51% on Friday as US tech fell. So this was not just Nvidia. It was tech as a whole getting sold, and Nvidia, as the biggest name, got hit hardest.

Now look at where price sits versus the averages.

MA5 is 188.37. MA10 is 188.29. Price at 188.70 is just above both. That is the first small positive in weeks. Short-term sellers are losing control, just a bit.

MA30 is 199.48. That is still far above. Price is about $11 below it. Until price gets back above 199.48, the long-term trend is still down. Short averages can turn in a day. The 30 average takes time. I do not call a bottom on MA5 and MA10 alone.

Then there is MACD. MACD -0.40, DIF -5.83, DEA -5.43. DIF is still below DEA. MACD is still below zero. So momentum has not turned yet. It has stopped falling as fast, but it has not turned up. Price bouncing while MACD is still negative is common. It means the bounce is a relief bounce, not yet a trend change.

Market cap is 4,498.98B, about $4.5 trillion. P/E TTM is 23.595. P/E LFY is 38.089. That gap matters. TTM looks cheap because past earnings were strong. Forward looks higher because the market is pricing in a different earnings path. I do not use P/E alone to call a bottom, but I do use it to check if "cheap" is real. Right now, it is not clearly cheap. It is in the middle.

So what do I do with a chart like this?

I do not chase the bounce to 188.70. I do not call it a bottom. I treat 179.00 as my line. If price holds above 179.00 and builds a base, I will start to add in small parts. If price breaks 179.00 and closes below it, I will stop. That low is the line that separates "sharp correction" from "deeper downtrend."

My own plan is simple, and I keep it on paper so I do not get excited on a green day.

First part, small, only if price holds above 183.81, the 24-hour low, and stays above MA5 and MA10. That would tell me the bounce has a base.

Second part, bigger, only if price gets back above 199.48, the MA30, and holds there for a few 4-hour closes. That would tell me the long-term sellers are done.

Third part, last, only if price reclaims 201.93 and then pushes toward 214.42. That would be the real turn. Until then, I keep the third part back.

What would make me add more? Price holding above 188.70, MACD crossing up with DIF getting above DEA, and volume staying when the talk fades. That trio, for me, is stronger than any single green candle.

What would make me cut? Price falling back below 179.00, MACD making a new low, or a new headline of broad tech selling while Nvidia falls faster than the rest. That would tell me the bounce was only a bounce.

I am not bearish on Nvidia as a business. I am cautious on Nvidia as a chart. The business did not change in two weeks. The price did, from 220.18 to 179.00. That tells me the market was pricing in a lot of hope, and hope is now being repriced.

188.70 is not a buy signal by itself. It is a test. Hold above 179.00, reclaim 199.48, turn MACD up. Until then, I watch, I wait, and I add only in small parts.

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$NVDA