#Gate股票畅聊季 #美股财报季 Can AI trading emerge from the gloom next week?

U.S. tech stocks faced a sharp sell-off this week, as the AI investment boom came under a dual test from a changing policy environment and wavering confidence in capital markets.
Although chip stocks rebounded on Friday, the Nasdaq remains in correction territory, and doubts about returns on AI infrastructure investment, financing capacity, and future growth prospects have yet to dissipate.

Looking ahead to next week, the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and earnings from companies including CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco will be key factors influencing market trends.
Meanwhile, whether the U.S.-Iran conflict can avoid further escalation and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can resume will also affect international oil prices and global inflation expectations.

CPI to test bets on a December rate hike
The U.S. will release October CPI next Tuesday and October PPI on Friday. As expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted markedly, the two inflation reports will be important indicators for assessing the future path of interest rates.
U.S. inflationary pressures remain affected by factors including energy prices and tariff costs. Meanwhile, the latest nonfarm payrolls data came in strong, further diminishing expectations that the Fed will pivot to easing in the near term. After the jobs report was released, bets in the interest rate futures market on a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose significantly.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for a December rate hike are now close to 80%. Economists broadly expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month over month in October.
ING believes such an increase would make a December rate hike more likely. Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, said that unless Tuesday's CPI comes in significantly below expectations or November nonfarm payrolls show a major downside surprise, expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December may be largely priced in by the time of the policy meeting.
For investors, if inflation accelerates again, markets may further raise their expectations for rate hikes. Against a backdrop of pressure on tech stock valuations and rising sensitivity to financing costs, this would put additional pressure on growth stocks.
AI investment thesis faces repricing. Changes in the political landscape after the midterm elections are bringing new uncertainty to the AI supply chain. Energy consumption, environmental concerns, and community impacts stemming from data center construction have become major election issues, and investors are beginning to worry that related projects may face stricter regulation and local permitting restrictions in the future. These concerns came to a head on Thursday, when the S&P 500 Information Technology sector fell 7.3% in a single day and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.2%, both posting their largest one-day declines in more than six years. The Nasdaq sank 5.5% that day, falling nearly 12% from its record high in October and entering correction territory. The pressure on tech stocks is not just about regulatory risk: the continued expansion of AI investment has already raised market concerns about returns on capital, financing capacity, and cash flow.
As data center construction costs continue to rise, investors are paying closer attention to whether massive capital expenditures can translate into actual revenue and profits.
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, noted that tech stocks' performance gap relative to the S&P 500 over the past month has reached its widest level since May 2002. Investors appear to be collectively avoiding tech stocks, with market buying notably weak.