#70%OfAltcoinsFallBelow200DMA

70%. Let me say the number first, then we can talk about what it means.

In an analysis dated November 7, about 70% of listed altcoins were trading below their 200-day average. So 7 out of every 10 altcoins are below their long-term average. Only about 30% are left above it. The same analysis says that, with Bitcoin and stablecoins left out, altcoin market value has melted about $200 billion from its peak.

Why do I care about this number, because the 200-day average is not a short-term line. When a coin drops below its 200-day average, we do not say "it fell today." We say "it has been falling for a long time, it pulled the average down with it." It can happen for one coin, it can happen for two coins. But when it is 70%, it is not a single-coin story anymore. It is the whole market's story.

That is exactly what is happening on the altcoin side right now. Most coins are not just correcting. They have lost their long-term trend.

When I say this, I do not mean "they are all trash." Because being below the 200-day average does not mean the project is over. But it does mean money is not looking at that coin. Big money does not easily go into coins that sit below their long-term average. It waits for them to get back above that average first. So a number like 70% is the clearest way to say "there is no buying appetite."

When I look at the list, I see this. The price has fallen, everyone says "it got cheap." But cheapness does not mean much below the 200-day average. Because while the price falls, the average falls too. The coin you thought was cheap yesterday stays in the same place today once the average moves a bit lower. That is why I do not look at altcoins and ask "how much did it fall" anymore. I ask "where is it versus the average."

So when does this 70% get better? For me, there are two signs.

One, the 70% slowly moving down. So sliding from 70 to 65, to 60. That would show some coins are starting to get back above the average. If one coin gets out, I will not get excited. If 5-10 coins get out, I will pay attention.

Two, market value stopping its melt and going flat. $200 billion has melted. Hunting for a bottom while the melt goes on is like trying to catch a falling knife. If the melt stops and the price goes flat, then I will say "maybe a bottom is forming."

What am I doing? This week I did not rush in altcoins. I did not look at what I hold and say "it fell, let me add." Because in a picture like 70%, adding means tying more money to a coin that sits below its average. Instead, I am looking at the 30% part that can stay above the average. Is there a coin holding there, is volume there, that is what I am looking at.

What if I am wrong? The 70% suddenly drops to 50, altcoins recover, I will be late. I am okay with that. Because going in early while 70% of altcoins sit below their average and waiting saying "this is the bottom" cost me a lot before. Now I prefer to wait.

What I feel inside is clear: 70% of altcoins are below their 200-day average, $200 billion has been wiped from market value. This does not mean "everything is over." This means "money is not looking at altcoins right now." Until money looks, I am in no rush. When the number of coins getting back above the average starts to rise, then we can talk.
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