#BTCETFOutflowsContinue

This week, while I was looking at the funds, the first thing that came to my mind was this: "Again, outflow?" Because this is not a one-day thing anymore. It keeps going. And an outflow that keeps going tells you much more than a sharp one-day outflow.

When you put the numbers side by side, the picture is clear.

Between November 2 and 5, in four trading days, total outflow was $869.8 million. On November 5 alone, outflow was $430.2 million. That day, none of the 12 funds saw an inflow. On November 6, another $412 million outflow came.

Look at the whole week, between November 2 and 6, total outflow was $1.28 billion. This is the biggest weekly outflow since the end of June. In October, there was already a $515 million outflow. So what started in October got faster in November.

Then there is the whole year. Total flow since the start of the year has turned negative, around $502 million in the red. If it goes like this, 2026 will be the first negative year since these funds started in 2024. I care about this part, because one bad week can happen, but the whole year turning negative says something else.

When you look at where the outflow came from, the picture gets even clearer. The largest fund saw outflow five days in a row. Monday $405.3 million, Tuesday $95 million, Wednesday $201.2 million, Thursday $105 million, Friday $403 million. So this is not small funds. This is big money leaving. While big money leaves, it is hard for the price to hold, and the price is already struggling around the $75,700 band.

Now most people fall into two mistakes here. One, they panic and say "outflow is here, so the price will crash." Two, they ignore it and say "outflows do not matter, the price will turn anyway." Both are wrong, I think.

Outflows alone do not drop the price. But they tell you what is going on. Risk appetite on the institutional side has gone down. They are cutting their position. Why? Because in the same week, the jobs data came in hot, the odds of a rate hike in December went up to the 80s, the dollar got stronger. In that kind of setting, big money first leaves the most jumpy place. These funds are the easiest door of that jumpy place. You can sell with one click and get out. That is why outflows get fast.

My view on these outflows is this: While outflow continues, I do not hunt for a bottom. While outflow continues, it is hard for the price to turn and stay up. But I do not sell every day just because outflow is here either. Because outflows usually get faster while the price falls, and slow down when the price gets near a bottom. The real sign is the outflow slowing down.

What am I doing? Let me say it openly.

This week I did not rush. I did not buy while outflows continued. Because I did not want to trade on a guess like "outflow is here today, it will turn tomorrow." I waited. My eyes were on two things. One, is the daily outflow number getting smaller? If instead of numbers like $430 million, $412 million, we start seeing days under $100 million, then I will understand that the big selling is getting tired. Two, on the day outflow stops, can the price hold? If outflow stops and the price holds, then I will start to accumulate in small bits.

If outflows keep going at this pace, I will keep waiting too. If the price slips below $74,700 and outflows also go on, I will push my next buy back, so I do not fall into the "I bought early" mistake. If outflows slow down and the price holds above $75,500, then I will make my first small buy. I will make the next buy after I see that outflow has really stopped.

What if I am wrong? Outflows stop, the price turns, I will be late. I am okay with that. I would rather be late and buy a bit more costly than buy early and get caught under the outflow wave. This week taught me that. While big money is leaving, small money jumping in saying "this is the bottom" usually ends up costly.

What I feel inside is clear: Outflow from the funds keeps going, a $1.28 billion week, the whole year in the red. This does not mean "fear is over." This means "big money is still cautious." So I am waiting too. No rush until outflow slows down. When outflow slows down and the price holds, then we can talk in small bits.

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