#Ahr999EntersBottomBuyingZone
#Ahr999EntersBottomBuyingZone

Last night, while I was looking at the chart, I saw the thing I had been waiting for. Ahr999 had dropped back below 0.45. On the November 7 close it was around 0.43, and the price had closed around $75,756.

Why I care about this, let me be honest. Because Ahr999 does not tell me "the bottom is here." It tells me "the price has fallen quite far below its long-term cost basis." The math is actually simple. It compares the price with the 200-day average. When the price moves far away from that average, the index drops. Below 0.45 has always been the bottom-buying zone in history. Between 0.45 and 1.2 is the regular accumulation zone. Between 1.2 and 4 is neutral. Above 4 is already the overheated zone.

Right now we are at 0.43. So we are in that first zone.

Add what happened on Friday and the picture gets clearer. The price dipped to $74,762 during the day. That was the lowest level since August 21. The 50-week average is around $75,562. So the price slipped below that average, then tried to climb back above it. The Fear index had fallen to 25, everyone's hands were shaking. The all-time high was $126,156, we are down 39.7% from there. On days like these everyone asks "will it fall more," and they are right to ask.

My view on this index is this: When Ahr999 enters the bottom zone I buy, but I do not dive in blindly. Because this index can stay low for weeks. Just because it dropped below 0.45 does not mean the price will shoot up tomorrow. There is no rule like that. It happened before. The index enters the bottom zone, the price moves sideways there for a while, sometimes dips a bit more, then recovers. So entering the zone does not mean this is the exact bottom.

What am I doing? Let me tell you without hiding it.

I am not going all in at once. I split my money into three parts in my head. With the first part I made a small buy, just to confirm we are in the zone. I am waiting on the second part. If the price holds in the $74,700-$75,500 band and no panic selling comes, I will add from there. I left the third part for the very end. If the index stays below 0.45 while the price keeps falling, then I will use the last part there. If the price recovers and the index jumps back above 0.45, I will use that third part slowly, after the recovery is confirmed.

Why am I doing it this way? Because the biggest mistake in this zone is saying "here is the bottom, let me put everything in." The bottom zone is not the bottom point. The zone can last for weeks. The guy who puts everything in on day one gets bored when the price moves sideways for two weeks and sells at the wrong place. I made that mistake before. I am going slow so I do not make it again.

One more thing. Ahr999 alone does not decide for me. I look at two more things beside it. One, can the price stay above the 50-week average? Holding above $75,562 is my first sign. Two, does the Fear index tick up from 25? Buying when fear is at 25 is not easy, but in history these levels have always been talked about for accumulation. I do not wait for fear to pass, I accumulate in small bits while fear is there.

What if I am wrong? I sorted that out in advance too. If the price breaks below $74,700 and closes there, I will say I rushed, I will stop adding. I will not keep adding just because the index is below 0.45. The index being in the zone does not mean the price has to turn. Sometimes the zone lasts longer, sometimes the price dips a bit more. In that case waiting is also a position.

To put it simply, without sounding like a summary, what I feel inside is this: Ahr999 at 0.43, price around the $75,700 band, fear at 25. When those three come together, for me it is time to stop just watching and start accumulating in small bits. But it is not time to put everything in. The bottom zone is the zone for the patient. That is why I am going slow.
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