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#亚太股市集体重挫 #Gate股票畅聊季 亚太股市这轮下跌主要是科技股高估值集中释放,亚洲市场风险偏好降温是跟着来的。亚太内部差异很大,说明资金在按“对 AI 硬件的敞口”重新定价。
为什么说是估值释放
源头在美股:费城半导体指数单日跌约 12%,是 2020 年以来最大跌幅。
AI 链跌得最重:SK海力士、三星电子盘中跌超 10%,软银一度跌近 16%。
低估值市场抗跌:恒生科技低开后几乎收复失地,A 股也明显比日韩台稳。
官方认为反应过度:韩国财长称股市对外部因素反应过度,将放宽保证金规则三个月。
如果真是风险偏好全面降温,黄金、美债和港股应该一起承压,但这次并非如此。
比较一下日韩台三个市场
韩股:反弹弹性最大,也最容易反复。 权重集中在三星、SK海力士,AI 硬件敞口最高。韩国政府已表态托底,但外资持仓拥挤,抄底要等美股企稳。
台股:超跌后机会较明确。 台积电是主要拖累,指数较高点回撤超过 20%。反弹力度取决于美股半导体能否止跌。
日股:反弹可能更早,持续性待观察。 日经已经进入技术性熊市,丰田等汽车股相对抗跌。软银这类资产仍会放大波动。
我的关注顺序是:先看韩股,再看台股,日股排在第三。
不过,现在更适合观察反弹,不宜把急跌后的回升直接当成趋势反转。真正能确认调整结束的信号,是美股半导体连续几天守住低点,同时 SK海力士、台积电不再领跌。#WCTCS9
Why call it a valuation unwind?
It started in U.S. stocks: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12% in a single day, its biggest drop since 2020.
AI-related stocks fell the hardest: SK hynix and Samsung Electronics dropped more than 10% intraday, while SoftBank briefly fell nearly 16%.
Lower-valuation markets held up better: the Hang Seng Tech Index recovered almost all its losses after opening lower, and A-shares were also notably more resilient than Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese stocks.
Officials believe the reaction was excessive: South Korea’s finance minister said the stock market had overreacted to external factors and that margin rules would be relaxed for three months.
If risk appetite were cooling across the board, gold, U.S. Treasuries, and Hong Kong stocks should all be under pressure, but that was not the case this time.
Comparing the South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese markets
South Korean stocks: They have the greatest rebound potential, but are also the most prone to repeated swings. Their heavyweight stocks are concentrated in Samsung and SK hynix, giving them the highest exposure to AI hardware. The South Korean government has pledged support, but foreign investor positions are crowded, so wait for U.S. stocks to stabilize before buying the dip.
Taiwanese stocks: The opportunity is clearer after the oversold decline. TSMC was the main drag, and the index has fallen more than 20% from its peak. The strength of a rebound depends on whether U.S. semiconductor stocks can stop falling.
Japanese stocks: A rebound may come sooner, but its durability remains to be seen. The Nikkei has entered a technical bear market, while automakers such as Toyota have been relatively resilient. Assets like SoftBank will continue to amplify volatility.
My order of focus is: South Korean stocks first, followed by Taiwanese stocks, with Japanese stocks in third place.
For now, however, it is better to watch for a rebound rather than treat a bounce after a sharp drop as a trend reversal. A clear signal that the correction is over would be U.S. semiconductor stocks holding their lows for several consecutive days, while SK hynix and TSMC stop leading the decline.#WCTCS9