#每周来晒 #美股史诗级抛售
In my view, this is more than just a short-term deleveraging event. It marks the beginning of a serious reassessment of valuations related to artificial intelligence (AI)—though this does not mean the AI ​​investment cycle has come to an end.

A distinction must be made between two points:

* The long-term growth narrative for AI remains intact.
* The market is questioning whether the massive investments in AI infrastructure will generate sufficient returns to justify current stock valuations.

This distinction is critical when deciding what to buy in the wake of the recent sell-off.

1. What is actually happening in the market?

Thursday, November 5, was a particularly devastating session for technology investors:

* Nasdaq: down 5.5%.
* S&P 500: down 4.4%.
* Nvidia (NVDA): down 9.3%.
* AMD: down 17.3%.

The Nasdaq also entered "correction" territory, having lost more than 10% of its value from its October peak.

Three key factors lie behind this decline:

A. The profitability of AI investments

Investors are increasingly questioning whether companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure will be able to generate adequate returns.

B. High financing costs

High borrowing costs, combined with a decline in free cash flow, make it increasingly difficult to justify massive investments in data centers. C. Political and regulatory uncertainty

The possibility of stricter restrictions on the construction of data centers creates uncertainty regarding future demand for semiconductors, electricity, and infrastructure.

This suggests that the recent sell-off is driven by both technical and fundamental factors.

2. Which sectors would I favor?

For the coming months, I would rank my preferences as follows:

1. Big Tech giants

My top choice

Companies with strong balance sheets, recurring revenue streams, and high free cash flow.

Examples: Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple.

Reason: They possess diversified business lines and greater financial flexibility, enabling them to withstand a prolonged correction period.

2. Semiconductor stocks

Selective accumulation

Examples: Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom. Reason: Long-term demand for computing power remains attractive; however, valuation risks and earnings expectations are still high. I would avoid aggressive buying at the first sign of a decline.

3. Defensive sectors

Short-term protection

Examples: Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola.

Reason: More stable demand and potentially lower sensitivity to the volatility seen in the technology sector.

Interestingly, during Thursday’s sell-off, consumer goods and utilities outperformed technology stocks. While they were not immune, their declines were significantly smaller. 3. What would make me more optimistic or pessimistic?

I would monitor five indicators:

Indicator Positive signal Negative signal
Nvidia and AMD earnings Strong expectations Low forecasts
AI infrastructure spending Sustained demand Spending cuts
Cash flow of major tech companies Improving Deteriorating
Treasury bond yields Declining Sharp rise
Semiconductor index Stabilizing Further decline

The most critical question is whether AI spending will continue to translate into actual revenue and profits.

If companies keep investing but struggle to monetize AI, semiconductor valuations could face additional pressure.

4. My investment approach

In this environment, if I were positioning a diversified portfolio, I would adopt a gradual approach rather than attempting to time the exact market bottom.

An example allocation for the equity portion of a moderately cautious portfolio could look like this:

Sample sector allocation

100%

Major tech giants

40%

Semiconductors

25%

Defensive sectors

35%

Furthermore, rather than deploying all capital at once, I would prefer to phase my semiconductor purchases over several stages.

5. My final assessment

My base-case scenario is that we are entering a period of greater differentiation within the artificial intelligence sector.

- Companies with genuine AI-driven revenue and strong cash generation should eventually see a more convincing recovery.

- Companies that remain dependent on continuous external financing and speculative infrastructure expansion face greater risks.

- Semiconductor stocks may offer attractive opportunities, but investors should demand better valuations.

- As long as volatility remains high, defensive sectors deserve greater attention.

My current preference: First, the major tech giants; second, defensive sectors; and finally, selective investment in semiconductors.

I would only begin to invest more aggressively in semiconductors once earnings expectations have stabilized and there are signs that market selling pressure has eased.

The next phase of the AI ​​market may reward profitability rather than mere investment in AI.

A key question: Is your investment horizon 3–6 months, or 1–3 years? This would significantly alter my approach to NVDA, AMD, and the major tech companies.

$NVDA

‌$AMD