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U.S. stocks and macro factors are the main causes
Rate hike expectations rise: The probability of a rate hike in December climbed to around 75%, reducing the appeal of non-yielding coins.
Tech stocks lead the decline: Confidence in the AI narrative wavered, risk capital pulled back, and the crypto market was sold off in turn.
GDP comes in strong: U.S. GDP grew 3.4% in the third quarter, giving the Fed more reason to raise rates.
ETH-specific selling pressure
Whales are reducing holdings: Around 160k ETH were sold over a few days, and exchange balances are also rising.
ETF outflows: Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of around 9,081 ETH in a single day.
Upgrade delayed: The testnet upgrade was postponed, removing a near-term reason for prices to rise.
The An'an incident was an accelerant
A large unusual movement in An'an's hot wallet triggered liquidity fears. Prices had already been falling before the alert; the hacking incident appears to have accelerated the decline, rather than caused it.
My strategy: Keep waiting for signs of a bottom
It's still too early to buy the dip. ETH is only around 1.6% above its 7-day low, and leveraged liquidations have yet to ease significantly. You can wait for several of these signals to appear together:
The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stabilize;
ETH closes back above the top of its recent trading range;
Liquidation volumes shrink significantly, with no more cascading liquidations. Once all three signals appear, consider building a position in stages; if prices keep falling without stabilizing, continue to wait and see.$ETH