[Short to long? Use two charts to objectively identify the trend turning point]
BTC
Chart 1. Daily timeframe. Since August, 813 (±100 points) has been a clear support/resistance flip level.
Chart 2. 4-hour timeframe. Since the move down from 87, rebound highs have kept getting lower. The previous high was 82.
Based on these two objective factors, the conclusion is that a daily close below 813 is bearish. As long as the 4-hour high stays below 82, the downtrend is still continuing.
So the trading advice is simple: factor in liquidity. Short after a sweep above 82 and a move back below. A stop-loss at the fake breakout high or at 83 is fine! Downside targets: 8/787/765.
If it doesn’t sweep higher and instead moves straight down, a more prudent right-side entry is still to wait for 794 to break.
For longs, watch price action in the 78-786 range. Only an entry here offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. But since my subjective bias is bearish until price closes above 82, if the shorts mentioned above get filled successfully, I’d lean toward holding for further downside rather than trading the rebound.
One last scenario: BTC continues to rally tonight and holds above 82. In that case, I’ll stay flat and wait for more candles to form tomorrow before considering a new structural entry.
Plan the trade, trade the plan!
#BTC重返8万 $BTC
BTC
Chart 1. Daily timeframe. Since August, 813 (±100 points) has been a clear support/resistance flip level.
Chart 2. 4-hour timeframe. Since the move down from 87, rebound highs have kept getting lower. The previous high was 82.
Based on these two objective factors, the conclusion is that a daily close below 813 is bearish. As long as the 4-hour high stays below 82, the downtrend is still continuing.
So the trading advice is simple: factor in liquidity. Short after a sweep above 82 and a move back below. A stop-loss at the fake breakout high or at 83 is fine! Downside targets: 8/787/765.
If it doesn’t sweep higher and instead moves straight down, a more prudent right-side entry is still to wait for 794 to break.
For longs, watch price action in the 78-786 range. Only an entry here offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. But since my subjective bias is bearish until price closes above 82, if the shorts mentioned above get filled successfully, I’d lean toward holding for further downside rather than trading the rebound.
One last scenario: BTC continues to rally tonight and holds above 82. In that case, I’ll stay flat and wait for more candles to form tomorrow before considering a new structural entry.
Plan the trade, trade the plan!
#BTC重返8万 $BTC
