#GoldBreaksAbove4100 #DailyStandouts $XAUT #ShareWeekly

Gold is back above $4,100, and the first question everyone asks is whether new highs are next. I think that is the wrong question for now. Here is how I see it in simple terms.

Where the move came from

Gold jumped more than 3% on Wednesday and added about 2% more on Thursday. From roughly $3,940 before the election to about $4,135 now is a gain of around 5% in two days. The reason was not fear. The dollar fell to a one month low, the 10 year yield slipped to about 4.89%, and oil dropped on hopes that tension with Iran will cool. That is a relief move on rates, not a rush into safety.

Why that matters

Gold pays no interest, so it likes falling yields and a weaker dollar. But the market still prices about an 80% chance of another Fed rate hike in December. So gold is rising while its biggest headwind is still standing. That makes the rally real, but fragile.

New highs are far away

One report says gold is still more than 20% below its level before the Iran war began in late February. If that is right, getting back there needs a gain of about 25% from here, because one divided by 0.8 is 1.25. So talk of new highs is early. The nearer question is whether $4,000 can turn into a floor.

The numbers on my chart

My gold chart shows the price at 4,116.70. The next level above is 4,214.76, which is 2.4% higher. Below it are 4,089.52, which is 0.7% lower, then 4,034.59, which is 2.0% lower, then 3,989.56, which is 3.1% lower, and then 3,847.37, which is 6.5% lower. Price has just moved back above the three moving averages that sit between 3,990 and 4,090, and that is a good sign. RSI is near 55, so it is not stretched. The momentum line is still below zero but has turned up. Spot gold is a bit higher than my chart right now, so refresh the price before you use these.

Friday is the real test

Payrolls come out Friday at 8:30 in the morning New York time, and the forecast is about 65,000 jobs. A number well above that would push hike odds higher, lift the dollar and put $4,000 back in play. A weak number does the opposite and could open the way toward the 4,200 to 4,230 zone that many traders are watching.

My take: I see this as a rebound inside a bigger downtrend, not a new bull leg yet. Before calling it more, I want a daily close above 4,215 and falling hike odds. If 4,000 fails, I would look at the 3,850 area next. Until then I would rather wait for Friday than chase.

Not financial advice.

Do you think gold needs a pause after a 5% jump, or do falling yields keep it going? And would you buy a dip near $4,000, or wait for a close above 4,215?

@Gate_Square