#BrentCrudeFallsBelow100 Brent Slips Below $100 as Hormuz Diplomacy Stays Unresolved: Oversold, but Not Yet a Floor

Brent is trading near $98 after losing the $100 handle, and WTI is quoted near $88.5 on the feed. Both benchmarks have fallen hard from October's spot peak of about $118, when the war-related risk premium was at its height. The question now is whether this is a healthy unwind of that premium or the start of a deeper move as supply catches up.

Where the market is
Brent settled at $104.77 on 2 November after a 7.6% drop, then at $103.60 on 3 November, its lowest settle in four weeks. Later on 4 November, it slipped below $100 once US-Iran diplomacy headlines turned mixed. WTI settled near $96 on 3 November and has since fallen further on the feed. The 4 November move lacks a verified official settle, so treat today's levels as intraday readings.

The core driver: a risk premium unwinding
Goldman Sachs estimated the war risk premium at roughly $27 a barrel, and said it explained most of October's rally. Oil has been trading on negotiations rather than physical shortages. Iran's leadership has signaled that some talks are possible, but a senior official said the sides remain far apart. Tehran and Washington are reviewing mediator proposals, and Iran's national security chief called the US response "not satisfactory." That split headline flow is what keeps the price swinging several dollars a day.

Supply is loosening
JPMorgan estimates the market ran a surplus of about 1.4 million barrels a day in October, up from 1.1 million in September. A surplus of that size pressures prices even without a peace deal. Hormuz transits have held up despite attacks, which limits the fear of an outright supply cut. OPEC+ meets on 29 November to set its strategy for 2027, and that meeting could matter more than any single diplomatic headline.

Brent: the indicators
Momentum is deeply oversold. RSI(14) is about 21.7. The KDJ readings are K 14.9, D 21.0 and J 2.8, all near the bottom of their range. MACD is -3.37 against a signal of -2.34, with a negative histogram of -1.03 that has been falling for several bars. ADX is about 41 with the minus directional index near 46 and the plus index near 8, which confirms a strong down-trend. Strong trends can stay oversold for a while, so an RSI reading near 20 is a warning sign, not a buy signal on its own.

Price is at about 98.3, between the support zone of 92.7 to 95.1 and the resistance zone of 99.8 to 102.2. The feed's break-confirmation rule requires two closes beyond a zone, or one close beyond it with a buffer of 0.1 ATR. Resistance is confirmed above 102.7, and support is confirmed below 92.2. The 20-day average is about 110.9, the 60-day about 103.0, and the 200-day about 94.4. Price sits about 4% above the 200-day average, which is the key long-term line.

Bollinger Bands read a middle band of 108.7, upper band of 118.8 and lower band of 98.7. Price has fallen below the lower band, with %B near zero, and bandwidth is about 18.5%. That shows high volatility rather than a quiet grind lower.

WTI: the indicators
WTI at about 88.5 sits roughly 7% below its 20-day average of about 98.5 and about 1% above its 200-day average of about 88.2. RSI(14) is about 23.2, and MACD is -2.67 against a signal of -1.80. ADX is about 37, also showing a strong trend. The session range on the feed is 88.33 to 88.93, a tight band near the session low. Because WTI's quote on the feed differs from news coverage, use this reading only as a rough guide until it is confirmed.

Key levels for Brent
Support sits at 95 to 93, with the 200-day average near 94.4 inside that zone. A close below 92.2 would confirm a support break, opening the way toward the 80s. Resistance sits at 99.8 to 102.2, then the confirmation level at 102.7. The 60-day average near 103 is the first trend ceiling above that. A move back above the 110 area would signal that the drop was a pullback.

Bull case
The bullish argument is that Brent is oversold, the 200-day average is holding, and any credible US-Iran agreement would be a sharp upside catalyst because the risk premium would not vanish overnight. A daily close above 102.7 would show buyers have regained control. Until then, rebounds into the 99 to 102 band are more likely to be tests of resistance than trend reversals.

Bear case
The bearish argument is that the risk premium is still being removed, supply is in surplus, and the trend is strong and down. A daily close below 92.2 would validate a deeper leg, and the 80s would come into view. That path becomes more likely if talks stall in a way that eases the immediate threat without a final deal.

My view
The technicals favor patience over chasing. Oversold readings plus a strong down-trend mean a bounce is likely at some point, but the most important signal is whether Brent closes back above 102.7. For a trader, the cleaner risk-reward is either a short-term bounce trade with a stop below the 200-day area, or waiting for a confirmed close either way. For a longer-term view, the risk premium and the surplus together argue against assuming the 2026 highs return soon.

Watch the US-Iran talks and any mediator-backed text, Hormuz transit data, the next EIA inventory report, and the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November. A signed agreement would likely push Brent through the 92 to 95 support zone. A breakdown in talks would send it back toward the 102 to 104 range.
Share the price level where you would expect Brent to stabilize. Do you see the 200-day average holding, or is it a stop-loss level?
Oil futures and CFDs are volatile and can be liquidated quickly. The price figures are feed readings that may be stale or differ from live quotes.