#Gate Stock Chat Season

The least exciting decision I’ve made this year, but the one I regret least so far, was choosing BYD over Tesla between the two EV leaders.

The starting point for my thesis was a valuation comparison I found hard to ignore: Tesla’s P/E ratio was once above 350x, about 10 times the Nasdaq 100’s average valuation of 35x; BYD’s forward P/E was around 17x. HSBC’s research report at the time put it more bluntly than I did—the 14-fold gap between the two companies’ market caps “has no reasonable justification.” BYD had the edge in manufacturing efficiency, global expansion, and cost control, while Tesla’s Robotaxi and humanoid robot stories were compelling but highly uncertain in both timing and scale, and these risks “were not reflected in the market valuation.” Tesla’s Q2 deliveries of 480,000 vehicles did beat expectations, but that was partly driven by a short-term boost from a surge in U.S. gasoline prices amid geopolitical conflicts, and that tailwind is fading.

Of course, this choice comes with a cost. If Tesla’s Cybercab or Optimus makes unexpectedly strong progress one day, I’ll badly underperform. I know what I gave up was “the option value of disruptive innovation” in exchange for “proven large-scale manufacturing and export growth.” This isn’t about right or wrong; it’s about whether I’m willing to pay a 300x P/E for a narrative that has yet to be commercialized. My answer is no.

Looking back, the most valuable thing to note isn’t how much I made, but this: when a stock’s story is compelling enough, valuation discipline is easiest to bypass. I chose not to let it be bypassed.#每周来晒