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WTI crude oil is facing significant selling pressure as the market reassesses geopolitical risks, supply expectations and the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.

Oil prices have experienced a sharp shift in sentiment following the US midterm election results. Republicans losing control of both chambers of Congress has added uncertainty to the political outlook, while traders are increasingly assessing whether Washington could move toward negotiations instead of further military escalation involving Iran.

At the latest available November 5 market snapshot, WTI spot crude was trading around $93.69 per barrel, down approximately 2.47% from its previous close of $96.06. The reported intraday range was $93.36–$96.28.

The bigger picture is even more interesting. On November 4, US crude futures experienced a decline of more than 8%, reaching approximately $88 per barrel. This followed several sessions of heavy selling as the geopolitical risk premium started coming out of oil prices.

One of the biggest factors behind this correction is the changing outlook surrounding the US-Iran conflict.

For weeks, geopolitical tensions had supported oil prices because traders were concerned about potential disruptions to energy supplies, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, expectations of diplomatic progress are creating a different market environment. If negotiations lead to a reduction in tensions and more normal shipping conditions, the risk premium previously built into crude oil could decline further.

Supply conditions are also becoming important. Gulf oil exports reportedly recovered to approximately 17.1 million barrels per day in October, around three-quarters of their pre-war levels. This recovery could reduce concerns about immediate supply shortages.

However, the situation remains uncertain. Failed negotiations or another escalation could quickly bring geopolitical risk back into oil prices.

From a technical perspective, $93–$94 is an important immediate support area for WTI. Buyers need to defend this region if the market is going to establish a stable recovery.

Above the current price, $96 is the first important resistance zone. A sustained move above it could bring $98–$100 into focus.

On the downside, a decisive break below $93 could increase selling pressure toward $90 and potentially $88.

My three scenarios are straightforward.

Bullish scenario: WTI holds above $93, recovers $96 and builds momentum toward $98–$100. Stronger buying participation would improve the recovery outlook.

Bearish scenario: Price breaks below $93 and sellers maintain control. In that case, $90 and $88 become the next important downside areas.

Consolidation scenario: WTI remains between $93 and $96 while traders wait for clearer developments around geopolitical negotiations and supply conditions.

I would also pay close attention to US crude inventory data, production levels, global demand expectations and the strength of the US dollar. These factors can influence oil prices independently of geopolitical developments.

My current outlook is cautious to bearish in the short term. The recent decline shows that the market is removing part of its geopolitical risk premium, but the possibility of renewed conflict makes aggressive short positioning dangerous.

I would not chase the downside after such a sharp correction. Waiting for a clear breakdown or a confirmed recovery around the key levels offers a more disciplined approach.

WTI is now caught between two powerful forces: the possibility of improving supply conditions and the continuing risk of geopolitical disruption.

The next major move will depend on which of these forces becomes stronger.

For now, $93 is the level I am watching closely, while $96–$100 represents the recovery zone bulls need to reclaim.