Could Tesla and SpaceX—two companies I follow closely—end up under the same corporate umbrella?

This has been the most discussed topic in the market in recent weeks: the possibility of a merger between these two major companies. As stock prices fluctuate, investors are focused on both potential merger scenarios and the companies' operational performance.

An announcement on October 20 brought this rumor into the realm of official consideration. It was disclosed that special committees, composed of independent board members, have been formed at both companies to evaluate a potential merger. While it was suggested that a merger could be a sound idea, it was also explicitly emphasized that no terms have been agreed upon and that a deal is by no means guaranteed.

How might such a merger take place?

Market expectations suggest that a merger could be structured as a stock-for-stock exchange, with a significant portion of the voting control in the combined entity remaining with the same individual.

However, the process is complex. A merger requires shareholder approval—necessitating a specific majority—and is also subject to the consent of regulatory bodies. In other words, it is not enough for the two companies alone to desire the merger; the shareholder structure and the regulatory framework are also decisive factors.

Therefore, it is more prudent to view the merger as an option currently under evaluation, rather than as a foregone conclusion.

What do operations at Tesla indicate?

Regardless of the merger discussions, there are notable developments at Tesla. As of November 2, the company’s autonomous ride-hailing service, "Robotaxi," has launched in Fort Worth, Texas—marking its fourth city in the state, following Austin, Dallas, and Houston.

It is reported that the company plans to introduce its purpose-built "Cybercab" vehicle in Dallas later this month. Meanwhile, in Nevada, it has been disclosed that authorization has been granted for up to 5,000 vehicles to operate in Las Vegas during the first year. The key detail to monitor here is cost. Management has set a target of approximately $0.30 per kilometer, a goal that has reportedly not yet been met. This target is critical to the long-term profitability of the service.

What is the situation with SpaceX?

For SpaceX, the focus is on valuation and strategic partnerships. One firm has significantly revised its revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 upward and brought forward the projected break-even point for free cash flow from 2035 to 2031. It is important to note that these projections are based on model assumptions and would need to be validated by actual earnings reports.

Meanwhile, there are efforts to expand Starlink into the mobile operator space. The CEO of a major mobile carrier reiterated that there are no plans for a virtual operator agreement with the satellite company, arguing that satellite connectivity does not represent an incremental market. The fact that none of the three major U.S. carriers appear receptive to such an agreement poses a hurdle to the goal of becoming a mobile operator. There are also reports suggesting that the company is seeking alternative partnerships to pursue this objective.

Both companies saw a decline in the most recent trading session. Some have suggested that this drop may be linked to the election results following high levels of political spending during the midterm elections. However, rather than attributing it to a single factor, it would be more prudent to view it as part of broader fluctuations in market sentiment, especially since neither company has disclosed any quantitative impact on their operational results.

There is a clear divergence of opinion among analysts. While one firm raised its price target, it maintained a "neutral" stance, whereas another adopted a more constructive outlook. Another institution considers a merger by 2027 highly probable, projecting that the combined entity could reach a valuation exceeding $3 trillion. These projections represent expectations for the future and do not constitute certainties.

There are two distinct dynamics at play. The first is operational: the Robotaxi and Cybercab initiatives hold the potential to strengthen Tesla’s position in autonomous driving, while Starlink’s mobile strategy sits at the core of SpaceX’s growth narrative.

The second is structural: a potential merger would directly impact the portfolio composition and risk profile, and it remains contingent upon a multi-stage process—including regulatory approvals and shareholder votes.

Key developments to monitor include official announcements from merger committees, progress regarding the urban expansion of the Robotaxi and its cost-per-mile targets, and the partnership model Starlink adopts for its mobile operations. While rumors may spread quickly, true value is built through operations.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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