#民主党赢得美国两院 Bitcoin BTC has historically plunged after midterm elections. Will 2026 repeat history?

On November 4, 2026, the U.S. midterm elections ended, with the Democratic Party winning control of both the House and the Senate! So will Bitcoin see a sharp drop after this midterm election?

A look back at history
After the three U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the time it took Bitcoin to bottom got progressively shorter:
2014: Bottomed 71 days after the election

• 2018: Bottomed 39 days after the election

• 2022: Bottomed 13 days after the election

Many people are trying to use this shrinking pattern to predict the 2026 market. But when we consider Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, we need to look at things objectively: history cannot simply be repeated in the present.

A quick review of the three market cycles

2014 | President at the time: Barack Obama (Democrat)

Election: November 4 | Bottomed 71 days after the election, at $152

This was a bear market after the 2012 halving, with the 2016 halving still ahead.
The early market was dominated by retail investors. The Mt. Gox exchange hack, bankruptcy, and collapse triggered a loss of confidence; the prolonged decline meant risks were cleared out slowly.

2018 | President at the time: Donald Trump (Republican)

Election: November 6 | Bottomed 39 days after the election, at $3,122

This was a bear market after the 2016 halving, with the 2020 halving still ahead.
The 2017 bull market bubble burst, and the Federal Reserve began tightening. Institutional capital entered the market, and panic unwound markedly faster.

2022 | President at the time: Joe Biden (Democrat)

Election: November 8 | Bottomed 13 days after the election, at $15,591

This was a bear market after the 2020 halving, with the 2024 halving still ahead. The main cause of the plunge was the black swan event of FTX’s collapse; the election was just a coincidence in timing. Institutions were deeply involved in the market, and negative news was priced in all at once.                                                                       
Shared characteristics:
• The bottoms of all three major bear markets came before the next halving. The four-year halving cycle is the underlying thread driving Bitcoin’s market movements.
• Midterm elections are just a timestamp within a bear market, not the root cause of price movements.
Looking at the 2026 midterm election, the U.S. midterm election date is November 3, and the current president is Donald Trump.

From a cycle perspective: The previous halving was in 2024, so 2026 falls in the post-halving phase of the cycle, making its cyclical environment completely different from the previous three cycles, which were bear markets before a halving.

All three previous bottoms occurred in the late stages of bear markets before a halving;

2026, however, is the second year after a halving, so the cycle position has changed.

In addition, the key points of contention in this year’s election are U.S. fiscal policy, inflation, and the direction of crypto regulation.

The election results will affect the progress of future U.S. crypto legislation and expectations for regulatory stringency, potentially causing short-term market sentiment fluctuations.

But this will not repeat the 2014/2018/2022 script of “a major cycle bottom forming some time after the election.”

The shortening from 71 days to 39 days to 13 days essentially reflects a maturing market and faster flows of capital and information—not a countdown formula where elections inherently signal a bottom.

By 2026, macro interest rates, the regulatory landscape, and the market’s position in the cycle will all have changed, so past data cannot be applied directly to predict the bottom.

Key takeaways:

✅Bitcoin’s four-year halving is a supply rule fixed in its code and a long-term market narrative;

✅Midterm elections are macro events that can only affect short-term sentiment;

❌Don’t treat historical coincidences and past experience as formulas for predicting market movements.

History can help us understand market cycles,
but it cannot be used to bet on where the future bottom will be.
The conditions are never exactly the same in every cycle.#WCTCS9