#BTC打破历届中期选举前看跌走势 #WCTCS9 Bitcoin’s weakness ahead of the midterms is fading. But simply “trading above the long-term moving average” is not enough to confirm a bull market restart.

As of November 3, BTC was trading around $77k, close to its 200-day moving average. The 200-day moving average can be understood as the average purchase cost over the past 200 trading days, and is a common indicator of medium- to long-term strength.

This time, there are two differences from the past:
· In 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC was below its 200-day moving average on election day; in 2026, it remains above the average, indicating a stronger long-term capital base.
· The market has already priced in the election results, so expectations such as a Democratic sweep may have limited impact on prices. What will really determine the next direction is whether the moving average holds, whether ETF inflows resume, and dollar liquidity.

The focus is on three main scenarios:
· Reclaiming the average after a pullback: the trend would be relatively strong, and the historical pattern of gains in the 12 months after elections would remain relevant.
· Chopping around the average: the market would remain range-bound, with direction awaiting confirmation from the close and trading volume.
· A decisive break below the average: the short-term structure would weaken, and a “break from historical trends” alone should not be considered bullish.

So, it is more like this: Bitcoin has moved away from the past script of “inevitably weakening ahead of elections,” but it has yet to prove that the election results are entirely bullish. For now, the key level remains the 200-day moving average: holding above it is encouraging, while losing it would mean treating the move as a medium-term correction for now.#广场交易达人