7.523M, 370,000 above expectations—JOLTS throws cold water on rate-cut expectations again. The market had broadly expected a figure near 7.15 million, so 370,000 represents a deviation of about 5% from expectations, which is significant for a single month’s data. JOLTS measures more than just “how many jobs are posted”; it also tracks hiring, separations, and the composition of vacancies, so it’s often used to gauge whether labor demand is actually cooling. An increase in vacancies suggests, at the very least, that businesses are still hiring and the labor market hasn’t softened enough for the Fed to feel comfortable cutting rates. That said, JOLTS data is lagged and frequently revised, so a one-month jump shouldn’t be treated as a trend. The key now is how Friday’s jobs report follows up: nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will together determine whether the market views this JOLTS report as noise or as new evidence that “employment remains resilient.”

One thing I learned during the 17-year bull market: the moment the data comes out isn’t what matters; what matters is that the market has already priced in expectations days in advance. It’s like this before every Fed decision: positioning moves first, not opinions. I’ve seen it happen countless times—the bond market and interest rate futures reprice the odds of a rate cut and the timing of the first cut ahead of the release, and afterward the data merely confirms the move or fills in the gaps. What really determines the short-term direction is often not the number itself, but whether it beats or misses what’s “already priced in.” So this time, I’d rather view the stronger-than-expected JOLTS report as a correction to overly optimistic rate-cut pricing in the past few weeks, rather than an immediate change to the medium-term outlook.

What are you seeing on your end? I’m watching changes in interest rate futures pricing, especially how positioning shifts and the yield curve reacts in the week before the meeting. If Friday’s payrolls and wage data remain strong, rate-cut expectations may be pushed back further; if the jobs report is noticeably weak, the market may start pricing in easing again. The 7.523M figure alone isn’t enough—we need to see whether it lines up with the surprise versus expectations, the jobs report, and interest rate futures pricing.