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Fourth-quarter revenue was $114.48B, up 12% year over year; earnings per share were $2.10, beating expectations. The iPhone remains the core growth driver, and Services revenue hit a new quarterly high.
Why did the stock fall despite the earnings beat?
The market is more focused on guidance for the next quarter. Apple expects revenue to grow 7%–10% next quarter, with Services growing 8%–9% and gross margin falling to 45%–46%. Higher memory prices and AI costs will both squeeze margins. Meanwhile, Services growth slowed to 9.8%, its lowest in more than three years; iPad and Wearables revenue also declined. The iPhone held up overall growth, but the hardware product lines are starting to diverge.
So the stock fell not because results were poor, but because the market is worried: how long can high growth last?
How to rank the three challenges
· Slowing growth is the biggest concern: iPhone growth depends on upgrade cycles, and accessories and iPad have yet to take over. Services is a large business, but its growth is slowing.
· Margins come second: Gross margin is still high, but rising memory prices have already started to affect pricing and profits. Next quarter’s guidance is clearly cooling, which the market will feel more directly.
· AI investment is a longer-term consideration: R&D expenses rose 32.3% year over year, indicating stepped-up investment in projects such as on-device AI and new hardware. For now, it mainly tests returns on investment and has yet to become a clear growth pillar.
Which area looks most promising next?
The iPhone is the most reliable bet in the short term. Demand for high-end models remains strong, the active installed base is growing, and foldable products could bring a new upgrade-cycle catalyst. Services is more promising over the medium term. It accounts for about 27.6% of revenue and has a gross margin close to 76%, making it an important source of high-quality profits for Apple. Converting its installed base into subscription, advertising, and payment revenue matters more than any single quarter’s revenue. AI is an option-like opportunity. It could improve the experience of existing products and may also open up new markets in search, agents, and paid services.
What really matters is whether users are willing to upgrade their devices for AI features, and whether AI can drive Services revenue.
The overall ranking is: Services first, iPhone second, and AI with the greatest upside potential. What Apple needs most now is for Services and AI to carry the growth baton after the iPhone. $AAPL