#美国中期选举今日投票 Once the midterm elections are over, will the market reach a turning point? Judging only by the news, the crypto market seems to have all the conditions for a rebound—but is that really the case?

Last night, Trump signaled a de-escalation in strikes against Iran, and oil prices fell accordingly. Meanwhile, the fallout from the theft incident has gradually subsided, and the market has not seen a broader liquidity crisis for now.

But the problem is that despite a steady stream of positive news, prices have not risen. Instead, they have pulled back for several consecutive days.

Over the past two months, Bitcoin has staged a rally, fueling expectations of a return to a bull market. Yet just as more and more people began to believe the market had reversed, prices weakened again.

The fact that positive news has not translated into upward momentum suggests that what the market may be lacking is not good news, but capital genuinely willing to enter.

Trump’s comments on the situation in Iran eased short-term market concerns, but negotiations do not mean the conflict is over. Financial markets trade on the gap between expectations and reality, not on the news itself.

The same is true of the crypto market. Spot ETFs and institutional capital have become important participants, and Bitcoin is increasingly intertwined with traditional financial markets. If institutions are still reducing their risk exposure, a few positive headlines alone will hardly be enough to drive a sustained rally.

Another factor worth watching is the midterm elections.

Looking back, after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin hit interim lows in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, respectively—about 71 days, 39 days, and 13 days after Election Day.

CoinDesk recently noted that, excluding 2010, when the market was still relatively small, Bitcoin rose an average of about 53.7% in the 12 months following the three midterm elections mentioned above.

But this does not mean historical patterns will necessarily repeat. The first three elections happened to coincide with Bitcoin bear-market cycles, and 2022 in particular was also hit by the FTX collapse. So the market bottom cannot simply be attributed to the elections.

In addition, Bitcoin had already hit an interim low of about $58k at the end of June 2026, before the November midterm elections. If this low holds, the market may have already formed a bottom ahead of the elections—unless prices later fall below it.

The fallout from the theft incident appears to have subsided for now. Even if users’ losses are reimbursed, that does not mean investors will immediately increase their allocations. Although the security incident did not trigger a systemic crisis, it was enough to keep some capital on the sidelines.

Ultimately, the real question facing the market now is how far the rally of the past two months has gone.

A price rise does not mean a trend reversal. If the rally is driven mainly by short covering and short-term bargain hunting, without sustained spot demand, prices can easily fall again when buying support is insufficient.

As for whether the market has to wait until confidence hits zero before it can rise, the answer is not necessarily.

Bottoms are often accompanied by pessimism, but sentiment hitting zero is neither a necessary condition nor a reliable trading signal.

Although people often say opportunities tend to emerge during downturns, a price decline does not mean a bottom has formed. After all, tops are usually sharp, while bottoms are rounded. #广场交易达人