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Could Trump’s tariff policy be on the brink of change? With a new U.S. Congress, global markets may face a new storm!
The biggest thing to watch in the U.S. midterm elections is not just the battle for congressional seats, but also whether the Trump administration’s tariff policy will face new resistance.
Trump has made tariffs a highly visible card to play, but they are also a double-edged sword. For the U.S., tariffs can strengthen its negotiating position and protect some domestic industries; for businesses, however, higher import costs, supply chain adjustments, and pressure on consumer prices are all real costs.
If Democrats retake the House, Congress may strengthen oversight of trade policy and pursue related hearings and legislative checks. However, it is important to note that a substantial part of tariff policy is implemented through executive powers and agencies, so a change in Congress does not mean tariffs will be immediately repealed. Even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, major policy changes may still face obstacles such as a presidential veto.
As for markets, if trade tensions ease, multinational corporations, manufacturing, and consumer stocks may get some breathing room; if tariffs continue to escalate, corporate profit margins may be squeezed and inflation expectations may rise again. Gold, meanwhile, could attract safe-haven flows amid trade uncertainty.
My view is that tariffs are not a free lunch: the costs are often ultimately passed among businesses, consumers, and global supply chains.
Investors do not need to guess every day what the next tariff list will be; they should focus on whether businesses can pass on costs and whether supply chains can adjust. After all, what markets fear most is not policy change, but being caught completely unprepared! #每周来晒 and #美国中期选举进入最后冲刺