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$QQQ
US tech stocks are staging a relief rebound after a brutal selloff triggered by disappointing Big Tech earnings and AI spending fears. QQQ is attempting to stabilize near the 690 level, with pre-market strength suggesting buyers are testing the waters ahead of major earnings and midterm elections. However, sentiment remains fragile—the prior session saw QQQ plunge over 3.4%, and the rebound lacks strong conviction.
Key Level
690–691 is the critical support zone. This cluster aligns with Friday's close and concentrated dark pool reference prices. A break below opens deeper downside; holding above keeps the rebound thesis alive.
Kline Analysis.
The 1-hour chart shows a sharp V-shaped recovery from 694.58 to 699.45, followed by a pullback. Price is now consolidating near 697–698, hovering around the MA5/MA10/MA30 cluster. The rebound candle lacks strong volume confirmation, and MACD remains in negative territory (MACD -0.06, DIF 0.29 below DEA 0.35). This suggests the bounce is corrective rather than impulsive—momentum is neutral-to-weak, and the market is waiting for a catalyst.
Two-Way Scenarios
· Bullish: Holding 690–691 support and breaking above 699.45 opens a path toward 702–705, especially if Apple/AMD earnings beat and election clarity fuels risk appetite.
· Bearish: Failure to hold 690 triggers a retest of 694.58, with a break below exposing 688–685 as the next liquidity zone. A hawkish Fed surprise or weak earnings could accelerate selling.
My Prediction
Short-term neutral-to-bearish bias. The rebound lacks volume and MACD confirmation. I expect a retest of 690–694 before any sustained move higher. If 690 breaks, downside momentum likely targets 685.
My Trade Plan
· Long: Only on a confirmed bounce from 690–691 with volume expansion. Stop below 688. Target 699–702.
· Short: Entry on rejection near 699–700 with bearish candle confirmation. Stop above 702. Target 694–690.
Final Wording
QQQ is bouncing but not convincingly. 690 is the line in the sand—hold it and the bulls have a shot; lose it and the selloff resumes. Trade the reaction at key levels, not the middle.