$CRCL

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Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is currently experiencing heavy bearish momentum, having suffered a sharp -9.40% drop to close at $72.43. While pre-market trading shows a slight relief bounce to $73.54, the broader trend is aggressively downward, with price action trading well below all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA30).

Key Level

· Critical Resistance: $74.50 (short-term MA10) and $78.28 (MA30).
· Crucial Support: $71.00 (the recent swing low).

Kline Analysis.

The 1-hour chart reveals a violent breakdown from the $88 range, characterized by a massive red candle that shattered prior support. Currently, the price is consolidating near the lows ($71-$72) in a weak attempt to find a floor. The MACD indicator remains in deeply negative territory (DIF -2.58), confirming strong selling pressure, although the histogram shows slight tapering, suggesting momentary exhaustion of the immediate downtrend.

Two-Way Scenarios

· Bullish Case: If buyers step in, holding the $71 floor could trigger a short-term relief rally or a "dead cat bounce." Price would need to reclaim $74.50 to shift momentum, with a potential target at the $78 MA30 level.
· Bearish Case: A breakdown below the $71 support level will likely trigger a continuation of the sell-off, forcing the stock into price discovery and potentially testing psychological levels toward $68 or lower.

My Prediction.

I anticipate a brief period of consolidation followed by a continuation of the downtrend. The bearish momentum is too strong to ignore, and the relief rally in pre-market is likely a trap for early buyers. If the general market remains weak, CRCL is highly likely to break below $71 in the near term.

My Trade Plan

· Action: Wait for a clear setup; do not catch a falling knife.
· Short Entry: Enter short if price rejects the $74-$75 resistance zone or breaks decisively below $71.00.
· Stop Loss: Tight stop at $76.50 to protect against a violent reversal.
· Target: Take profit at $68.00 (next psychological support).

Final call.

CRCL is in a deep downtrend with the MACD flashing strong sell signals. The critical line in the sand is $71. A break below this level confirms the bearish continuation, while any bounce toward $74 will likely be met with heavy selling pressure. Trade with the trend: stay bearish unless the price reclaims the MA30.