#WCTCS9 Is using midterm elections as an anchor to judge Bitcoin’s bottom reliable?

Bitcoin bottomed shortly after the election in each of the past two midterm cycles.
In 2018, it fell from around $17k to about $3,100, a decline of 84%. The low came roughly a month after the election.
In 2022, it fell from nearly $70k to around $15k, a decline of nearly 80%. The low came almost on the same day as the election. Both times, market liquidity was very tight, with little new money coming in and more sellers than buyers.

2026 is different. This year’s low came on July 1, at around $58k, more than four months before the November 3 election. The low came before the election, not after it. By October, the price had recovered to around $80k, up about 40% from the July low.
Why is it different?
In the previous two cycles, the market was mainly short of money, with few buyers. This year, the situation has changed: the Federal Reserve has stopped quantitative tightening, money from reverse repos is flowing back into the banking system, bank capital rules have been eased somewhat, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a new channel for institutional investment. None of these factors were present in the previous two cycles.
So the midterm election may no longer be a reliable anchor this year. But that doesn’t mean the bottom is confirmed. An earlier low doesn’t mean prices can’t fall again; it just means any further decline would need a new reason. $BTC