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The new week is off to a lively start! The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due at 23:00 tonight (forecast: 54.7), Apple reports earnings tomorrow morning, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise rates again tomorrow at noon. The biggest wildcard is the US midterm elections on Tuesday, with results expected during the day on Wednesday. Volatility in US stocks, gold, the dollar, and crypto could pick up over the next few days, so manage your positions and don't make a heavy bet on direction. Finally, don't forget: nonfarm payrolls are due this Friday! A stronger-than-expected report would further reinforce expectations of a December rate hike.
Let's take a look at today's technical analysis:
BTC: A small double bottom formed on Friday, confirming support around 76666. The recovery has now reached the key 78500 level. The 78500–80220 range is a strong resistance zone. The 80220–81700 range saw prolonged resistance in the previous phase; after the black swan event pushed prices below it, it turned into resistance. The bulls' target is 80220, where we can look for signals to try a short from higher levels. For dip buying, 77300–78500 are both good levels. There are many events this week, so watch for their impact on the market. The bulls are currently strong, so don't go against the trend without a signal. If you're confident in the bulls, you can chase the rally and enter at any time as long as you're comfortable with it; for now, I don't have any better advice. (See chart for details)
ETH: After hitting a low of 2173 on Friday, the day of the black swan event, it has been recovering ever since. As of publication, this bullish recovery also appears to be accelerating, which is a good sign. In late October, Mi Shen repeatedly stressed that it would be difficult to see a trend reversal without an acceleration in selling volume, and recommended buying the rebound. But after Friday's event cleared out positions, it may have provided the basic conditions for a new direction. Combined with the impact of several upcoming events, ETH could start another bull run and test the 2800–3050 resistance zone (the consolidation range from November last year). “Think big, trade small”: set the bigger target first, then determine your intraday targets and trades based on the market. 2330 is a key intraday level, marking the starting point of Friday's 4 a.m. BN event. Above that, 2330–2380 marks the highs of the previous consolidation phase. So the near-term target is a full recovery to 2380. For short-term trades, you can look for signals in this range to try a small short from the left side. My view is that without positive catalysts, a full recovery is unlikely to happen in one go. If it does, close the short decisively at 2380. For dip buying, watch for opportunities in the 2233–2268 range. (See chart)$ETH