#美国中期选举进入最后冲刺 The U.S. midterm elections are becoming the biggest variable in global capital markets

Behind recent volatility in global markets is a key event many people easily overlook: the U.S. midterm elections.
They do not elect a president, but they can change the direction of U.S. policy over the next two years, roil U.S. stocks, the dollar and gold, and indirectly affect global assets, making them the biggest source of uncertainty in capital markets right now.
 
Many people may wonder: What exactly are the midterm elections?
Simply put, U.S. presidents serve four-year terms, and midterm elections take place in the second year of a president’s term. Voters elect all members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and a large number of governors. It is like a nationwide midterm exam, with voters using their ballots to grade the president’s performance over the first two years in office.
 
Market attention around this midterm election is focused on whether Republicans can retain control of Congress. Two very different election outcomes would lead to entirely different market expectations.
 
First scenario: Republicans win both the House and Senate. Markets broadly expect that Trump’s proposed tax cuts, industrial support and trade-related policies will be more likely to take effect. Expectations for corporate tax burdens would fall, and investors would look for opportunities in U.S. growth stocks.
Markets would expect more fiscal stimulus, a stronger dollar and pressure on gold. But large-scale fiscal expansion could also widen the U.S. deficit and raise the risk of renewed inflation.
 
Second scenario: Congress is divided, with Democrats controlling at least one chamber. This has also been a relatively common outcome historically. New bills the president wants to introduce would be blocked by Congress, making them harder to enact.
Markets may instead interpret this as reduced uncertainty: the likelihood of aggressive policies being introduced would fall, and expectations of major changes to taxes, regulation and trade would ease. U.S. stocks often see sentiment recover once the results are in. At the same time, limits on fiscal expansion could push Treasury yields lower, prompting investors to consider gold’s safe-haven value.
 
There is also a tail-risk scenario: Democrats win both the House and Senate. Markets would expect tax hikes on large companies and tighter regulation of the technology sector to accelerate, potentially putting pressure on U.S. technology and AI stocks and causing short-term volatility.
 
Looking at historical patterns, markets tend to fluctuate and hesitate ahead of midterm elections. Investors are reluctant to bet on the outcome in advance, sentiment turns more cautious, and risk appetite declines. Once the election is decided and uncertainty lifts, markets generally stabilize gradually, regardless of which side wins.
 
Many people ask: Do elections so far away in the U.S. have anything to do with ordinary people like us?
The answer is yes.
The strength of the dollar and Treasury yields affect global capital flows. A stronger dollar can draw funds back to the U.S. from emerging markets; a weaker dollar can make gold and overseas equities more attractive. Volatility in commodities and exchange rates can also ripple outward.
 
Keep a level head: Elections are only a short-term source of market disruption and will not change the long-term market trend. Inflation, economic fundamentals and corporate earnings still determine the long-term direction of assets. Elections bring more volatility in sentiment and expectations; they are not the end of the market story.
 
Ordinary investors do not need to chase rallies or sell off in panic every time election news breaks.
As the race remains unpredictable, market volatility may increase. It is better to stay patient and not let short-term news sway your judgment. Once the results are in and uncertainty is resolved, reassess the opportunities and risks of your assets.

Global capital markets are interconnected, and a midterm election taking place 10,000 miles away is reshaping the rhythm of global assets.