#BTC大跌 Bitcoin’s two legs are caught in a bear market

Technical structure, institutional holdings, and black swan events all point to a potential bottom in Q1 2027

Current Market Positioning and Price Review
From late October to early November 2026, Bitcoin traded in the $77,000 to $83,000 range, down about 35% to 40% from levels near $126,000 around the October 2025 high. Since the start of 2026, prices have trended unevenly downward from about $87,800 at the beginning of the year, reaching a June low of about $59,000 before rebounding. In mid-to-late September, prices briefly approached or broke above the $83,000 to $86,000 area, but the surge around September 21 was widely viewed as a false breakout lacking follow-through confirmation. Since that high, prices have fallen nearly 13% and broken below several key moving averages.
In past cycles, Bitcoin bear markets have often begun with a rapid first drop of around 50%, followed by a rebound and then a deeper second decline. In the current cycle, the first drop after the 2025 high approached or exceeded 50%, closely resembling past patterns. Current price action shows a rebound structure with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The short- and medium-term moving averages (10-day, 20-day, and 50-day) are in a bearish alignment, and some weekly momentum indicators have also begun to turn lower.

Technical Structure Analysis: False Breakout and Bearish Alignment Confirmed
On the daily and 4-hour charts, prices quickly retreated after attempting to break through key resistance, failing to establish firm confirmation and follow-through volume in the breakout area. Prices then failed to hold the 50-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day, forming a classic bearish alignment. The shorter-term 10-day moving average has also crossed below the 50-day. Prices have faced clear resistance when retesting these averages, indicating sustained selling pressure. On the weekly timeframe, the test of the 50-week moving average and a possible break below it are seen as key signals confirming a “false bull market” or failed bull-market structure. A decisive weekly close below this average would further strengthen the medium-term bearish structure. Channel analysis shows prices repeatedly encountering resistance and retreating at the upper channel or upper Bollinger Band. Prices are currently in the lower-middle part of the channel; a break below the midline could point to the lower channel boundary or the previous low area. From a wave-structure perspective, the first decline is interpreted as wave A, followed by a rebound in wave B (possibly an expanded flat or running flat pattern, first making a new low and then a false breakout to a new high), with the current move entering a wave C decline. Wave C may have entered an accelerating third subwave.
Historical data shows that the second leg of a Bitcoin bear market typically exceeds the first, with common drawdowns of 70% to 90%. Based on the 2025 high, a 70% drawdown corresponds to about $37,000 to $38,000, an 80% drawdown to about $25,000, and a 90% drawdown to nearly $12,000 to $13,000. More conservative measured-move or head-and-shoulders targets point to the $20,000 to $27,000 area.

Historical Cycle Comparison: A Mirror of the 2022 Bear Market. After the November 2021 high, Bitcoin first fell about 50% to 52%, then rebounded to encounter resistance near the 50-week moving average, forming a false breakout and failed confirmation structure. It then suffered consecutive black swan events with the Luna collapse and FTX, ultimately completing a second decline of about 68% before bottoming.
The current market closely resembles that cycle in magnitude, moving-average behavior, and structure: after the first decline, prices rebounded to a key moving average and met resistance; the false breakout failed to confirm, and weekly signals gradually turned bearish. Bitcoin bear-market bottoms are often preceded by one or two major black swan events. One occurs after or midway through the first decline, and another near the end. The market has already experienced one major security incident; another shock involving liquidity or institutions could accelerate the bottoming process.
Institutional and Corporate Holding Risks: Strategy’s Leverage Effect Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds about 848,500 bitcoins, roughly 4% of the circulating supply, at an average cost of about $75,400. The company has amplified its Bitcoin exposure through ongoing purchases and stock financing. Its share price has diverged from Bitcoin’s trajectory, forming a structure resembling a head-and-shoulders or double top, with measured targets pointing to a substantial decline. If Bitcoin enters an accelerated downturn, the company could face pressure from financing costs, debt, or forced adjustments to its holdings, potentially triggering a secondary shock to market sentiment and liquidity. Historically, holdings adjustments by major institutions or companies during bear markets have often amplified volatility. Strategy’s size makes it a potential market flashpoint. Similar situations have also emerged among other entities with large digital-asset allocations, where accumulated unrealized losses could turn into actual selling pressure if prices fall further.

Black Swan Event: The Largest Crypto Theft in History and Its Impact
In late October 2026, An'an suffered the largest cryptocurrency theft in history, involving about $6.3 billion. Blockchain analytics firms widely pointed to North Korea-linked hacking groups. Some assets were frozen, but large sums were still successfully transferred. The exchange pledged to cover the losses, but the incident directly damaged market confidence, triggering cascading liquidations and sell-offs in risk assets.
The scale of the incident far exceeded previous records, intensifying concerns about the security of centralized custody. As the most volatile major risk asset, Bitcoin is among the first to be hit when risk appetite declines. Historically, the Luna and FTX events corresponded to accelerated declines midway through and near the end of bear markets, respectively. The current event more closely resembles a mid-cycle shock; another event of a similar scale or nature could push prices into a deeper correction. Meanwhile, valuation pressure on AI-related assets, the Federal Reserve’s policy path, and broader rotation across risk assets are also amplifying Bitcoin’s volatility. High-volatility assets often underperform when liquidity tightens or risk appetite falls.

Bottoming Window and Potential Targets
Considering the technical cycle, historical symmetry, and event-driven factors, the potential bottoming window in the market consensus is concentrated between November 2026 and Q1 2027. Some models point to the November-to-January period, while others emphasize completion of the second decline in the first quarter before a new cycle begins. Before a bottom forms, the market often needs to go through a collapse of hope and a period of extreme pessimism, as most participants shift from “buying the dip” to “giving up completely.” In terms of price targets, a milder scenario points to the $57,000 to $63,000 area (near the 200-week or 300-week moving average), but the average historical bear-market drawdown suggests lower levels are possible. If a head-and-shoulders pattern or measured move fully plays out, the $20,000 to $27,000 range becomes a key area to watch. In an extreme scenario, prices could reach even lower levels, but that would require a more severe liquidity or systemic event.

Market Sentiment and Participant Behavior
Strong confirmation bias persists in the market. Some participants interpret every rebound as confirmation of a bottom and see false breakouts as the start of a new bull market. History shows that mid-bear-market rebounds often attract large amounts of momentum-chasing and dip-buying capital, which then suffers even greater losses during the second decline. True bottoms usually occur amid extreme pessimism, when media and social platforms are filled with “going to zero” narratives. Successful participants focus more on objective structure and probability than on reinforcing a narrative. Moving-average alignment, channel position, momentum divergences, and volume confirmation remain key tools for identifying trend changes. Weekly signals often lag daily signals, but once confirmed, they tend to be more persistent.

Risk Warnings and Key Areas to Watch
In the short term, closely monitor weekly closes relative to the 50-week moving average, support from the 200-week and 300-week moving averages, and whether another major security or liquidity event occurs. The financial and holding developments of large holders such as Strategy are also worth tracking.
At the macro level, Federal Reserve policy, the overall performance of risk assets, and valuation adjustments in AI-related sectors will continue to affect Bitcoin’s relative strength.
Bitcoin retains its long-term qualities as a digitally scarce asset, and historical cycles show that bear markets are usually followed by larger-scale rallies. However, the current structure indicates that the bear market is not over, and the second decline may still be underway. The ultimate price bottom will take time and depend on sentiment and events. Objectively tracking technical signals and fundamental changes is more important than chasing short-term narratives. $BTC