Good morning. With macro data piling up this week, I want to talk not about any particular coin, but about how to tell a real breakout from a fake one.

Data-heavy weeks are when fake moves are most common. Thursday’s sharp drop in the Nasdaq was a good example—it fell fast, but what really matters is whether it can recover over the next two days. If it can’t, that’s a breakdown; if it does, that’s a shakeout. I’ve seen this kind of price action plenty of times: prices surge on day one, pull back on lighter volume on day two, then open lower on day three. Many people mistake the first day’s surge for a breakout, only to get trapped by a false signal. The S&P 500 closed at 7623.68 last week, down 0.47% for the week, while the Dow was up. When the indexes diverge like this, breakout signals are especially deceptive. For example, if the S&P weakens while the Dow is propped up by its heavyweights, looking at just one index might make you think “it broke out,” but together they show disagreement.

My rule: if volume doesn’t support the move on the breakout day, I treat it as a false breakout, no exceptions. I’d rather miss the move. A real breakout won’t mind if you get in a day late. It’s not just about whether volume increases—it’s about whether the breakout candle’s volume is above the average for a recent period. At the very least, price shouldn’t be climbing on shrinking volume. If a breakout happens on light volume, there’s still time to wait for confirmation the next day.

There’s another trap: being heavily positioned with unrealized gains is when you’re most vulnerable. Once people are in profit, they become cautious. Even when the signal is confirmed, they’re afraid to add, and end up missing the easiest part of the move. I’ve paid for that mistake. Now I make myself stick to the plan and focus on the signals, not my account balance. For example, when unrealized gains reach 20%, your hand may instinctively want to take profits. But if price, volume, and structure are all confirmed, you still need to add according to plan; otherwise, all the time you spent holding that position will have earned you only a fraction of what you could have made.

With this week’s data coming out, focus on confirmation, not prediction. If you have anything to add, meet me in the comments.