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Most people are watching for CPI and other indicators to break out, but I think a drop is more likely first. Inflation is still hot, the labor market is cooling, and the Fed is standing pat. That’s not bullish—it means even the Fed isn’t sure. Signs of money rotating out of tech and into defensive sectors are becoming increasingly clear. Stare at charts for too long, and you start seeing what you want to see. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll wait to be proven wrong.