#BTC跌至7.7万美元 #每周来晒 Bitcoin falls to $77,000: a buying opportunity or a weakening trend? My entry levels...

This is neither a “surefire buying opportunity after leveraged positions have been flushed out” nor proof that “the trend has completely weakened.” More accurately, the short-term trend is down, but the price is testing a key medium-term support zone between $77,000 and $77,876. The deciding factor is whether it can hold this level over the next few days and whether capital flows confirm a recovery.

How this sell-off happened.
Macro is the master switch.
At its October meeting, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% by a 10-2 vote, with two officials favoring a hike. Chair Warsh gave no clear guidance for December. After the decision, markets raised the probability of a December rate hike to around 85%, while the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened. Brent crude at around $116 (amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz) added to inflation expectations; the 10-year Treasury yield had already reached around 5.11%, and real rates remained elevated. This pushed the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets to extremes—even gold fell below $4,000.
In this environment, Bitcoin’s decline is driven more by a contraction in macro risk budgets than by deterioration in crypto fundamentals.

How much deleveraging has happened?
On October 25-26, the day Bitcoin fell below $80,000, approximately $837 million was liquidated across the market over 24 hours, with longs accounting for 82.8%; on October 30, the crypto index fell another 5.3%, CME Bitcoin futures touched a low of $76,260, and are now trading at around $78,020, down about 3.8% on the day.
A round of liquidations has indeed taken place, but the flush may not be complete: Glassnode’s liquidation heatmap shows a liquidation band near $75,000, with the largest band between $60,000 and $63,000—the downside still has “landmines,” so don’t assume “one flush means we’ve hit bottom.”

What does the trend structure look like?
It has weakened step by step. On September 23, Bitcoin lost support at $84,000-$85,000; on October 25, it lost $80,000—Glassnode estimates that $80,000 is exactly the “average cost basis of companies holding Bitcoin,” and falling below it means institutional holdings are broadly underwater, making stop-loss orders more likely to trigger; after the hawkish pause on October 29, it fell below that level again; on October 30, it approached $77,000—Glassnode’s “True Market Mean,” the cost basis midpoint for long-term holders. Highs and lows are moving progressively lower, making the short-term trend clearly downward.

There are also arguments in favor of buying the dip. During the September pullback, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $1.3 billion in net inflows over five days (daily inflows of $999 million, $715 million, and $347 million on September 21-23, respectively), showing that institutions were buying at lower prices; funding rates reset after this round of liquidations; and $77,000-$77,876 is a confluence of the long-term cost basis midpoint and recent support. If this zone holds and ETF inflows return, a technical rebound is possible.

My entry framework (for analysis, not investment advice).
If it were me, I’d use two tranches, wait for confirmation, and set strict stop-losses.
First tranche, exploratory position: I’d only enter if Bitcoin reaches the $75,000-$77,000 range and three signals appear at the same time—high-volume stabilization, net spot ETF inflows that day, and funding rates recovering from deeply negative territory to positive. I’d then invest one-third of my planned position, with a stop-loss below $72,000 (exit if the secondary support at $72,500 breaks).
Second tranche, confirmation position: Once Bitcoin recovers and holds above $80,000 (the institutional cost basis and a psychological level), I’d add to two-thirds of the position if a retest holds; if it falls back below $80,000 and ETFs turn to net outflows, I’d reduce the position. What I wouldn’t do: take a large position buying the dip above $77,000 before a confirmed base forms; go all-in before ruling out the $60,000-$63,000 liquidation band; or use leverage to trade above a liquidation band.

What to watch next.
Five signals to monitor: daily net spot ETF inflows or outflows; the Coinb premium index (reflecting actual U.S. buying demand); whether $77,000 breaks decisively—if it does, watch $72,500, and below that, the $60,000-$63,000 liquidation band; Brent crude and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, along with the Federal Reserve meeting on December 9-10; and the direction of 10-year Treasury yields and real rates.