#Strategy优先股回归100美元面值 #Gate广场万圣节 STRC’s return to around par reflects a combination of a company-backed price recovery and a partial restoration of confidence in the model. The market is still far from fully endorsing its financing model.

📊 Core support: This rally is essentially “the company used cash to force the price up”

1. The price recovery and buybacks have been completely synchronized. STRC rose from a June low of $70 to around $99, with Strategy continuously buying back shares with real cash on the secondary market throughout. In Q3 alone, it repurchased nearly 21 million shares at an average price of $97.39, spending $2.04 billion.

2. Pricing power is largely in the issuer’s hands. Data from Barclays’ funding meeting shows STRC’s price movements are closely tied to the company’s buyback capacity, rather than being driven by organic market demand.

3. Management has explicitly pledged to continue buybacks whenever the share price is below $100. Nearly $960 million in remaining buyback capacity is still available to support the price.

🛡️ Confidence recovery: Some risk factors have indeed been materially eased

1. The dividend safety cushion has expanded substantially. The company increased its USD reserves to $5.07 billion, enough to cover 3.4 years of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, fully resolving the liquidity crisis that had most concerned the market: being forced to sell coins to pay interest during a bear market.

2. The balance sheet has improved significantly. Thanks to book gains on its Bitcoin holdings, the company recorded a record $20.91 billion in operating profit in Q3. Its 848k Bitcoin holdings are collectively in the green, and the fundamentals are much stronger than six months ago.

3. The daily dividend mechanism is now in place. Shareholders approved the daily dividend plan on October 28, and STRC will begin paying dividends daily starting November 1, significantly reducing the price gaps caused by traditional monthly dividends and making the product more like a stable, cash-like fixed-income product.

Daily dividends can significantly reduce the price gaps caused by traditional monthly dividends and make the product more like a stable, cash-like fixed-income product.

⚠️ It is still far from “full acceptance of the financing model”

1. The financing flywheel has not restarted. The company’s funds are currently being prioritized for preferred stock buybacks; at one point, it even paused Bitcoin purchases and used all its funds to buy back STRC. It has no spare capacity to launch new preferred stock offerings to finance Bitcoin purchases.

2. The model’s structural flaws have not changed. Preferred stock is inherently a highly cyclical leveraged instrument: it can accelerate coin accumulation in a bull market, but in a bear market, the pressure of fixed dividend payments can turn it into a source of forced selling. This core conflict of “amplifying cyclical volatility” remains unresolved.

3. The market still has doubts about whether it can remain at par over the long term. Polymarket prediction data shows that the market sees only a 9% chance of STRC touching $100 by the end of October, and only a 78% chance of it returning to par by year-end—far from a consensus of strong confidence.

Simply put, the current situation is that “the company used cash to pull STRC back from the brink of crisis, repaired the most extreme discount, and temporarily convinced the market that it will not default.” But the crucial step of restarting new issuance and getting the financing flywheel turning again is still needed before the market will once again endorse the expansion model of “issuing preferred stock to finance coin purchases.”

$GOOGL