#BTC跌至7.7万美元 #每周来晒 This Bitcoin sell-off looks more like volatility and bottom-building after a leverage flush than a complete trend reversal. $77,000 offers support, but a bottom usually requires the price to regain and hold ground, with buyers continuing to step in.

Why did it fall this time
· Macro headwinds: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but its policy stance was hawkish, and expectations of high rates weighed on tech stocks and crypto assets.
· Fund outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw combined outflows of about $774 million over the preceding two days, followed by inflows of only about $424 million over the next three days, which did not make up for the shortfall.
· Leverage liquidation cascade: Crypto contract liquidations totaled about $356 million on Oct 29, including about $205 million in long positions. The price drop triggered liquidations, which in turn pushed prices lower.
· Industry news: bn-related security concerns sparked withdrawal fears, further dampening risk appetite. Does $77,000 count as a bottom? There is indeed buying support around $77,000. The average cost basis of recent buyers is about $75,800, and there is also some spot buying in the $78,000-$79,000 range. But support is not an ironclad floor.
After losing $80,000, it has become a short-term resistance level; the price needs to reclaim and hold it to show that selling pressure has eased.

What to watch next
· First, $80,000: Reclaiming it and holding on a retest would indicate a recovery by the bulls.
· Next, ETF flows: Support will be more solid if there are consecutive net inflows that are no longer offset by spot selling.
· Watch leverage: A decline in open interest and a slowdown in liquidations would indicate weakening selling momentum.
· Watch trading volume: A drop in volume during a sharp decline may just be a pause; a high-volume halt to the decline is more meaningful.

My view: $77,000 is worth watching, but it should not be treated as a bottom to buy blindly. A safer time would be after the price moves back above $80,000 and completes a retest confirmation. If it falls below $77,000 again, the next support would shift to around $76,000.