#美股财报季 More Earnings Shockers

The U.S. earnings season continues, with Intel and Amazon delivering more shocks and their shares plunging further after hours.
There is not much to say about Intel on the hardware front: expectations were too high, and the stock was already highly volatile if the company failed to keep up. Shares plunged nearly 23% after hours.
The focus remains on cash flow at the big tech companies. Amazon's free cash flow was -$33.456 billion, mainly due to a sharp increase in capital expenditures in AI. Shares fell 12% after hours. Capital is still most focused on cash flow at the major AI companies. Until that narrative changes, sentiment across the tech sector will be difficult to repair. Most of the major October earnings reports are now behind us. Next week, aside from Apple, Qualcomm and Nvidia's results on the hardware front are not really that important, because whether they are good or bad, they reflect the previous quarter and offer no guidance for what comes next.
Once the market's overall direction is established, it is difficult to change. In a high-interest-rate environment, the long-term AI thesis is starting to be questioned. But volatility should decline after earnings season, improving the backdrop for consecutive sharp declines. The market will likely see a modest rebound next week, but tech hardware stocks should still be avoided.
The Nasdaq continued to plunge after hours, and Treasury yields also tumbled. For now, even with elevated oil prices and inflation, Treasuries have become the only safe haven. Even U.S. stocks seem to be rotating somewhat into dividend plays, with traditional industries with stable cash flows leading gains. As a result, the Dow is clearly outperforming the Nasdaq.

With high interest rates and inflation, gold has no clear inflection point in sight. But one favorable factor right now is the pullback in global AI stocks. To some extent, it may be necessary to wait for this sell-off in U.S. stocks to run its course before trading on expectations of monetary easing. However, from a trading perspective, it is very difficult to identify the inflection point. Gradually buying as prices fall remains the better approach.